Lula has a 48% chance of winning an election in 2022; Bolsonaro, 26%, points XP

Former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) has a 48% chance of winning the 2022 election, while President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) appears with 26%, according to an XP survey carried out online with 91 institutional investors (large banks and managers).

Next comes the former justice minister, Sérgio Moro (Podemos), with 16% of the votes. The former Lava Jato judge joined the party on November 10th. In fourth place is the governor of the state of São Paulo João Dória (PSDB), with 5%.

Last among them comes Ciro Gomes (PT), with 3%.

Assets Expectancy

Participants were also asked about economics, markets.

If Lula wins, 32% of respondents believe that asset prices will fall from 5% to 10%, while 15% think there will be a fall of 10% to 20%.

If the PT member is elected, 21% of respondents imagine that the Ibovespa will lose 10% to 20%, while 19% think that there will be no change.

On the other hand, if Bolsonaro remains in office, 46% think there will be no change in asset prices. For 45% of respondents, the Ibovespa will remain at the same level.

Doria, on the other hand, divides opinions. One part believes that there will be a 5% to 10% increase in the index, while the other half assumes that there will be a 10% to 20% growth in assets. To 31%, the Ibovespa will rise from 10% to 20%.

37% of respondents also believe that the price of assets will rise from 5% to 10%, if Moro is elected, while 33% claim that the Ibovespa will increase by 10% to 20%.

Finally, 34% of large banks and management companies claim that assets have lost 10% to 20% of their value if Ciro Gomes is elected. And, at the same time, 24% think that the main Brazilian index will drop from 20% to 30%.