Market improves forecasts for gross debt and government fiscal deficit in 2022

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The financial market has improved forecasts for the primary result of the federal government’s accounts in 2022 for the sixth consecutive month, showed a Prisma Fiscal report released this Friday (10) by the Ministry of Economy, also indicating a reduction in the forecast for gross debt in the year. year.

According to the document, which captures projections of market agents for public accounts, the expectation for the central government’s primary result this year was a deficit of R$ 11.938 billion, compared to a deficit of R$ 21.346 billion projected in May.

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The figure for the previous month differs from the BRL 22.053 billion presented in the May report, according to the ministry, due to an instability in the system that delayed access by some institutions.

Revisions to projections for more positive results in 2022 began in January, when market agents improved the forecast for a fiscal gap this year from R$95.5 billion to R$88.7 billion.

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All the following results brought better prospects for public accounts.

Market projections for the primary result reflect an improvement in expectations for net government revenue this year, with an increase from R$1.738 trillion in the previous report to R$1.762 trillion in this month’s survey.

There was a less intense increase in the estimate of total government expenditure, from R$1.757 trillion to R$1.770 trillion.

With the improvement in data, analysts consulted by the ministry reduced the expectation for the general government’s gross debt in 2022 to 78.90% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), compared to 80.05% in the May survey.

The government has been recording collection records amid the resumption of economic activity, high inflation and soaring fuel prices.

The economic team has stated that the current strategy is to convert this revenue gain into tax cuts.

The market’s fiscal estimates came out better even after the cut in PIS/Cofins on fuels, the 35% reduction in the IPI (Imposto sobre Produtos Industrializados) for a series of products and cuts in import tariffs.

For 2023, market projections indicate a primary deficit of BRL 24.764 billion in the central government, compared to BRL 28.206 billion in the estimate provided by the previous report.

Gross debt next year, according to forecasts, should be 81.75% of GDP, compared to 83.23% forecast last month.

Source: CNN Brasil

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