Market is attentive to truck drivers’ stoppages, assess economists

Economists consulted by the CNN Brasil Business said that the market is keeping an eye on the consequences of the stoppages that truck drivers are carrying out on Brazilian highways. However, he is optimistic that the situation will return to normal in the coming hours.

Roadblocks by truck drivers against the victory of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) take place in at least 23 Brazilian states. Several institutions have already warned of risks of shortages and economic crisis if the situation continues.

The stoppages were confirmed in Acre, Amazonas, Bahia, Ceará, Distrito Federal, Espírito Santo, Goiás, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Maranhão, Minas Gerais, Pará, Paraná, Pernambuco, Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Sul, Rio Grande do Norte, Rondônia, Roraima, Santa Catarina, São Paulo, Sergipe and Tocantins.

The president of ABRAS (Brazilian Association of Supermarkets), João Galassi, asked President Jair Bolsonaro for support regarding the supply difficulties that supermarkets are already beginning to face due to the stoppage of truck drivers on the country’s roads.

The Brazilian Association of Airlines (ABEAR) alerted the authorities to the impact generated in the air network as a result of the blocking of roads and highways in several parts of the country. Estimates from airlines show that, if the current scenario continues, over the holiday the sector may suffer from fuel shortages.

market view

According to Marcelo Oliveira, CFA and co-founder of Quantzed, the stoppages of truck drivers are still not priced on the stock market, as the market expects Bolsonaro to speak out at any time, which could calm tempers and discontinue the movement. .

“For now, the market has not given much importance, still digesting the election in the hope of ending as soon as Bolsonaro makes a speech accepting Lula’s victory. But if the stoppages are extended and they are well organized, I believe it will have a negative price on the stock market”, he says.

In the view of Pedro Paulo Silveira, managing director of Nova Futura Investimentos, if these manifestations show the possibility of spreading, it could have negative effects on the level of activity. He cites the truck drivers’ strike that took place during Michel Temer’s government in 2018, which led to a reasonable drop in GDP and a negative variation in the stock market.

“This increases the perception of risk, generating a lot of uncertainty in the political environment and this can contaminate the investors’ perspective in relation to country risk. A riot of this nature can affect economic activity and agents’ expectations regarding the market”, he explains.

For Luiz Fernando Figueiredo, former director of the Central Bank and chairman of the board of Jive/ Mauá, the market already predicted this “noise” at the end of the elections. According to him, regardless of the result, analysts were already counting on warmer manifestations, but without a direct impact on the economy. “That’s what we’re seeing at the moment. The stock market registers high on the second day after the elections and the dollar continues to fall”, he analyzes.

However, Figueiredo believes that if these blockades take time to end and the demonstrations expand, it could bring greater problems to the country’s economy in the short term. “Analysts are on alert, following the movements, but what we see is a slowdown on the part of the protesters and a cooling off after the statements of President Jair Bolsonaro”, he points out.