The Funcas Panel has downgraded its growth estimate for next year by eight tenths, to 6.5%, “after 14 of the 20 panelists have downgraded their estimates“as a consequence of the” weak end “of 2020.
“This cut in the annual forecast is due to carry-over effect derived from the bad data expected for the fourth quarter of the year, and there has not a worsening of the perspectives of the next year “, they point out from the Foundation of the Savings Banks.
“According to the estimate of the National Institute of Statistics (INE), GDP grew by 16.7% in the third quarter, almost four points above those forecast by analysts in the previous Panel. However, in the months of October and November, as a result of the new restrictive measures taken by the second wave of Covid-19, the indicators show an interruption in the recovery “, delves into the document released today.
Among the Funcas panelists are BBVA Research, Bankia, Repsol, Bankia or the CEOE in addition to the Foundation itself, and the average figure of 6.5% that the different study centers foresee for the next year is very far from the Government’s estimate. In the macroeconomic picture of the Executive, which is becoming more and more dead paper according to the different warnings, a rebound of almost 10% is estimated next year thanks to the additional boost of European funds and plans.
Already at the time of its publication, the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) pointed out that it was an optimistic estimate, and the Authority itself has indicated in recent days that this figure is now totally ruled out. In fact, its president, Crisitina Herrero, showed this Wednesday her concern about the possibility that your most negative scenario will materialize. And in that case, the economy would barely rebound by 3.8% over the next year, a figure very far from the collapse that the economy will suffer this year and, also, much lower than the growth estimated for the year. rest of European powers. In any case, all these figures further distance the moment when the Spanish economy will regain its pre-pandemic levels.
Improves the unemployment rate
On the other hand, the Funcas panelists predict that the average annual unemployment rate will stand at 16.9% this year and at 17.5% in 2021, which represents a decrease of 0.9 and 0, 3 points, respectively, compared to the previous Panel, despite the fact that for 2021. Analysts highlight that since May, more than 50% of the total employment lost in March and April has been recovered, and to this is added the exit from ERTE of more than 2.7 million workers, from almost 3.4 million at the end of April to about 600,000 at the end of October, reports Europa Press.
Finally, the panelists increase their forecast for the public deficit by one tenth this year, to 12.4% of GDP, and by nine tenths, to 8.3%, for the year next. In both cases, data superior to those anticipated by the Executive.
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