Midterm elections in the US: If Biden is not a candidate, then who?

Discussions have already begun. Who will be the Democratic nominee in 2024? The by-elections on USA they will not only shape the next two years of his presidency Joe Bidenbut they will determine and the candidate is valued by political analysts and consultants.

While a first-term president’s party traditionally suffers losses in Congress on by-electionsthe 79-year-old Biden himself faces additional difficulties.

Biden’s advisers are making plans

Biden and his advisers have repeated several times, most recently on November 2, his intention to run again and have announced that they are already making plans to do so. White House officials also expect him to be a candidate.

But if the Democrats suffer heavy losses, this will be seen, as reported by the Athens News Agency, as a reproach against the Biden presidency and will increase the pressure on the president to pass the baton to someone else.

Thomas Alan Schwartz, a historian of the American presidency at Vanderbilt University, believes that the time has come for a transition to a younger generation: “I think the midterm elections will be decisive at that level. If the Democrats have big losses, I think we’ll see intense pressure on Biden not to run in 2024.”

Who will be nominated?

Vice President Kamala Harris is currently the primary Democratic alternative candidate, party officials tell Reuters, with most polls showing her second only to Biden and well ahead of most other possible names.

Michelle Obama, a favorite among voters, has not indicated any intention to run, and former vice presidents who run for the presidency traditionally take it.

But Harris’ approval rating, once well above 50%, now hovers at 40% or lower in most polls.

However, her poor performance in the 2020 presidential race and lack of notable achievements since that office cast doubt on whether she could defeat a Republican candidate.

Three governors from deep blue states (the color of the Democratic Party)—California’s Gavin Newsom, J.B. Pritzker of Illinois and Phil Murphy of New Jersey — have already reached out to potential donors and people to staff their staff in the event that Biden is not the nominee, according to two imgs familiar with the efforts.

“None of the three would run against Biden in the primaries and would accept Harris as a candidate”the imgs say.

A senior Democrat says Newsom “has let people know he will not run against Biden” or Harris.

But he says of Newsom that he might change his mind about the vice president.

At the same time, many Democratic candidates who failed in 2020 are likely to run this time around, a possibility so alarming to Democrats that it was played out as a thriller movie script on the comedy television show Saturday Night Live last month.

Lyndon Johnson, the first to teach

Biden would not be the first US president to decide not to run again.

Lyndon Johnson, provoked by other Democrats who opposed the Vietnam War, surprised the country by announcing in March 1969 – a presidential election year – that he would not be a candidate again.

And many Republican presidents, beginning in the 1860s, served only one term.

Johnson made the announcement in a speech calling for peace in South Vietnam and asking Congress to take action to reduce the deficit, saying he could not spend time on “personal partisan struggles” while Americans were being killed in abroad.

The chaotic Democratic convention and election campaign ended with Republican Richard Nixon taking office.

“It was a mess, mainly because it was so late,” explains Jeremy Suri, a professor of history at the University of Texas.

Republicans in the late 1800s however were in the White House in a period of national discord and widespread post-Civil War anger for several consecutive terms running new candidates again and again.

“I think the Democratic Party and the White House should not feel that it has to be the same presidential candidate again to win the election,” Suri concludes.