Mississippi tornadoes possible this week, meteorologists say

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“A regional tornado (is) possible Tuesday afternoon and evening in parts of the lower to middle Mississippi Valley,” according to the U.S. Storm Prediction Center on Monday morning. -Friday (28).

The Storm Prediction Center issued an early forecast warning, calling it “a significant and severe weather event” in parts of the Mississippi River Valley on Tuesday.

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“This rainfall system will have the potential to produce strong storms with tornado capability, destructive straight-line winds, and also large-sized hail,” Bill Bunting, head of forecast operations at the Storm Prediction Center, told CNN. Weather. “Details about the highest tornado risk areas will become clearer as Tuesday approaches and smaller scale trends become more evident.”

A level 3 out of 5 risk for severe storms was issued across the region, including Memphis. However, the biggest threat from Tuesday’s severe storm is the potential to affect more than 25 million people from east Texas to southern Indiana.

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The forecast center also noted that “a categorical update will be possible on later outlooks”, meaning the severe storm threat has the potential to increase to a level 4 or 5 out of 5 as Tuesday approaches and the prediction becomes clearer.

Regardless, this week’s storms are expected to be strong and potentially damaging.

Night tornadoes are more dangerous

The system is likely to generate tornadoes and damaging winds in the lower Mississippi River Valley after dark Tuesday, which could be particularly dangerous.

“Unfortunately, it looks like the strong storm threat will continue through Tuesday night,” Bill Bunting, head of forecast operations at the Storm Prediction Center, told CNN Weather.

The time of day a tornado strikes also makes a big difference in the death rate. Night tornadoes are more dangerous because many people are sleeping and don’t know they need to find a safe place.

While the biggest tornado threat for this particular event exists during the day, there is still the possibility of some overnight rotating storms.

Areas most at risk for overnight thunderstorms on Tuesday include southern Illinois through Louisiana.

“Another challenge with nighttime tornadoes, especially in the fall and winter, is that storms often move very quickly, sometimes 50 or 60 mph (80 or 96 km/h),” Bunting said. “That means you must make decisions quickly and take shelter based on the information contained in the severe storm or tornado warning, not wait until the storm arrives.”

Bunting pointed out that another concern is the potential for flooding, thanks to the heavy rains resulting from repeated storms.

Rainfall is expected to fall in the range of 1 to 2 inches (2.5 to 5 centimeters), but some isolated locations could reach 4 inches (10 centimeters).

‘Season of severe weather’ again in November

While tornadoes in the US can happen any month of the year, they are most common in the spring, thanks to the clash of cold and warm air as the seasons change. The same merging of temperatures also occurs in autumn, which is why you will often see a “severe season” later in the year as well.

“Although severe storms occur less regularly in autumn and winter than during the spring/summer months, large severe weather surges have occurred during this time of year,” Bunting noted. “Just think of December of last year and the record number of tornadoes for the month and the tragically high death toll.”

Earlier this month, severe level 4 thunderstorms with moderate risk spawned dozens of tornadoes across Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana and Arkansas, causing damage to numerous homes and businesses.

If Tuesday’s threat escalates to a Level 4 risk, it will be the first time there will be two Level 4 risks issued anywhere in the US in the month of November.

“You can see that even though the spring months are our busiest time climatologically, there is a secondary increase in tornado activity in November,” the National Weather Service in New Orleans said.

“Severe storms in autumn and winter can be extremely impactful and sometimes catch people off guard, as storms tend to occur less frequently during the colder months,” added Bunting.

Source: CNN Brasil

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