Night of the Oscars 2021: the favorites and our predictions

In a year when cinemas around the world have been forced to surrender to the epidemic, the 93rd Academy Awards, which will be delivered the night between 25 and 26 April in a ceremony in attendance at the Union Station in Los Angeles, they finally emerge from the hollywoodcentrism in which they had been imprisoned for decades to open up to what Niccolò Ammaniti would define “the Outside”. The fact that the awards, due to Covid and the production block, have moved away from the more commercial titles – this year there is no Joker or a A star is born to move the crowds, so to speak – it can be seen in two ways, one more positive and the other more negative.

The positive is that smaller movies like Threatening e The Father they were able to benefit from a visibility that perhaps, under normal conditions, they would not have had. The negative is that the general public, the one who every year chooses not to see the Oscars on TV (in 2020 the spectators to witness the victory of Parasite there were 23 million, about 37 fewer than the 1998 edition, which still remains the most viewed ever), risks considering the Academy Awards as an elitist prize where only the candidates sing and play it alone, excluding the real the engine that drives cinema, that is, the paying spectators.

The problem with the 2021 Oscars is that very few have seen the nominated films and to be able to actively participate in the debate that, a few years ago, was guaranteed thanks to popular titles such as La La Land e Bohemian Rapsody which almost everyone, for better or for worse, had taken a look. As, however, the critic of the New York Times AO Scott, perhaps it was just the case that after the victory of Parasite, the first non-English film to win Best Picture, Hollywood became aware of external stimuli and platforms which, this year, were the only means to allow many titles to be released (it is no coincidence, after all, that the Academy has revolutionized the rules to allow films to compete for the first time despite not having been released in room). When you get on a bicycle, on the other hand, it is better to pedal, and it is from here that the Oscars number 93 start again: from a more intimate ceremony that forgoes the glitter of the Dolby Theater for a more informal setting at Union Station, and from a series of records that, hopefully, will keep the attention of the international press alive.

THE EDITION OF THE RECORDS
It is the first time that two women, Chloé Zhao ed Emerald Fennell, compete for Best Director: an extraordinary thing if we think that, in the history of the Oscars, only 5 women got the nomination, including our Lina Wertmüller, who with her Pasqualino Seven Beauties was the first. It is the first time that an African American actress, Viola Davis, given as a favorite thanks to the role of Ma Rainey in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom by George C. Wolfe, reaches 4 nominations. It is the first time that a Chinese woman, always Chloe Zhao, competes simultaneously for Direction, Film, Screenplay and Editing. It is the first time that an Asian American actor, Steven Yeun, is nominated for Best Actor. And it is the first time that a Korean actress, the formidable Yoon Yeo-jeong, is nominated for Best Supporting Actress (an award that will almost certainly win after the SAG and the Bafta).

THE PREDICTIONS FOR THE BEST FILM AND THE BEST DIRECTION
The chapter on possible winners is more difficult. Unlike in other years, there is, in fact, no announced winner or a title that has more credentials than others to obtain the statuette. In the category of Best Film, the heaviest, it could be to make it Nomadland, the Chloé Zhao film that saw Frances McDormand starring with real modern American nomads and that, three years after The shape of water by Guillermo Del Toro, could give victory to an award-winning film at the Venice Film Festival. To undermine Nomadland it might be delicious though Threatening by Lee Isaac Chung, a beautiful film that owes its name to a tender and green plant that grows everywhere like parsley and is present on the tables of most Koreans: a story of family and rebirth that will hardly leave the Academy indifferent . Safer is the statuette to Chloé Zhao, also favored by the armrests of the sofa in the living room: she would be the second woman (as well as the first Asian) to win for best director. Practically certain Oscar also for Soul, which will win for Best Animated Film; for Another round, Thomas Vinterberg’s film given as the favorite as best international film (Italy did not manage to reach the five) and for My friend at the bottom of the sea – My Octopus Teacher by Pippa Ehrlich and James Reed for best documentary.

THE FORECASTS FOR THE BEST ACTORS
To triumph as best actor could be Chadwick Boseman for his last film role following colon cancer that ripped him from life at the age of 44 in 2020. Should he win for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, he would be the third actor to win the posthumous Oscar after Peter Finch for Fifth Power in 1976 and Heath Ledger for The dark Knight in 2008. As best actress she could make it or Viola Davis which, always for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, she agreed to appear plump, sweaty and with makeup perpetually dripping on her face, or Frances McDormand that, if it wins for Nomadland, would reach 3 Oscars drawing with Meryl Streep. As Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress, on the other hand, rapidly rising ratings for Daniel Kaluuya, star on Judas and the Black Messiah, e Yoon Yeo-jeong per Under threat. If this were really the case, all four categories for best actors would go to three black performers (Boseman, Davis and Kaluuya) and one Korean (Yeo-jeong).

THE FORECASTS FOR THE SCRIPT
As for the original screenplay, it could be the one to win A promising woman by Emerlad Fennell, who we all know as the Camilla Parker Bowles of the third and fourth seasons of The Crown. The film, which will arrive in theaters on April 29, is destined to be discussed because of the controversial message that it provokes in anyone who looks at it, especially in men: the protagonist is, in fact, a woman who, every week, lets herself be picked up by a man pretending to be drunk only to catch him in the act when a decidedly sexual intercourse is about to take place not consenting. The ending, then, is shocking: it could be the Gone Girl from 2021. As best non-original screenplay we bet everything, instead, or on Nomadland, or his The Father – Nothing is as it seems, the wonderful film by newcomer Florian Zeller based on a play written by himself and adapted for the cinema with Christopher Hampton.

THE POSSIBLE EXCLUDED
Despite the US criticism you still hope, Glenn Close is very unlikely to win the Oscar as best supporting actress after 7 unsuccessful nominations. The role is that of the smoking grandmother of American Elegy by Ron Howard, not exactly a very successful film that, in fact, sees her compete simultaneously for the Razzie Awards as the worst supporting actress. Same goes for Gary Oldman, who could go home with a dry mouth for a movie, Mank by David Fincher, who has the highest number of Oscar nominations this year – a whopping 10 – but who may not win anything like The Irishman by Martin Scorsese in 2020 – a fate that could also touch The Chicago Trial 7 by Aaron Sorkin. We are also very sorry for Ahmed Rice, extraordinary in the film Sound of Metal in the role of a drummer who does not resign himself to the idea of ​​having lost his hearing, and, above all, to the great Anthony Hopkins which, in The Father, lending his face to an elderly man with Alzheimer’s, gave one of the most beautiful performances of his career (from Variety some say that, surprisingly, the Academy may have chosen to reward him, and we would be delighted). Apparently there will be nothing to do for either Vanessa Kirby, winner of the Volpi Cup in Venice for Pieces of a Woman, while on Carey Mullighan per A promising woman someone always still believe it.

THE HOPES OF ITALY WITH LAURA PAUSINI
At these post-pandemic Oscars, Italy makes itself felt thanks to 3 categories: the one for the Best Original Song which, after the Golden Globe, could end up in the hands of Laura Pausini, by Niccolò Agliardi and Diane Warren per I do (Seen), soundtrack of the film by Edoardo Ponti Life ahead of him with Sophia Loren; the one for the Best Costumes made by Massimo Cantini Parrini and the one for the Best Makeup developed by Mark Coulier, Dalia Colli and Francesco Pegoretti for the Pinocchio by Matteo Garrone. Of course, the hopes are all around Pausini, who will sing the song not live during the ceremony, but in a video contribution recorded on the terrace of the Academy Museum of Motion Pictures, which will host all the nominees for the best song except Húsavík, which will be recorded in Iceland.

WHERE TO WATCH THE FILMS
Most of the nominated films, due to the discourse linked to the importance of digital platforms in these Oscars, are already available. Mank, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Elegia americana, Pieces of a Woman, Life ahead of him, The White Tiger, World News, From 5 Bloods e The Chicago Trial 7 sono su Netflix; Sound of Metal, Judas and the Black Messiah, Borat 2 e That night in Miami your Amazon Prime Video; Soul your Disney +. Nomadland will arrive on April 30 on Star; Threatening will be available on 5 May on Sky and, simultaneously, at the cinema together with A promising woman (April 29) ea The Father.

With the hope that the hall will reopen, the lights go out and the screen lights up.