NZD/USD Price Analysis: Uptrend remains intact as it pushes the top of the range

• NZD/USD continues to trade around the highs of its long-term range.
• Despite the recent weakness, the trend is still likely bullish and therefore likely to extend.

NZD/USD reversed course after breaking the top of its consolidation range. It is threatening to fall back towards the range lows, however, it is too early to say for sure.

Despite the current weakness, the trend remains bullish on the daily chart, and since “the trend is your friend,” the odds still favor a recovery and eventual extension to higher highs. The price is also holding above the trendline of the August rally, a further sign that the uptrend is intact.

NZD/USD daily chart

The Kiwi is likely to hit its next upside target at 0.6409, the December 2023 high. A break above 0.6302 would provide further bullish confirmation. Another target is located at 0.6448, the 0.618 ratio of the height of the extrapolated range upwards.

If NZD/USD closes below the trend line – currently around 0.6160 – it could mark a reversal lower. A break below 0.6133 (September 3 low) would form a lower low and provide further confirmation. The next downside target would be the cluster of moving averages located at 0.6070, followed by the range lows in the 0.5850s.

The MACD has not yet closed below its red signal line. If it does, it will provide a sell signal, although such a crossover would not be sufficient on its own to signal a trend change.