The Russian President, Vladimir Putinhas already gathered 70% of the military personnel and weapons at the borders of the Ukraine he would need for a full-scale invasion of the country, according to two US officials familiar with the latest estimates.
The number is an estimate based on the latest intelligence assessments, but officials did not specify what information they had or how they developed their assessments, citing the sensitivity of how they collect the data.
The assessment represents the continued significant increase in Russian forces on the borders with Ukraine, but it is unclear how long Putin would take to further increase that number, or whether the Russian president would need full capability to carry out an invasion.
The human cost can be dire: some assessments estimate that civilian casualties in Ukraine can run into the tens of thousands, with as many as five million refugees.
US officials still say publicly and privately that they do not know whether Putin has made a final decision on any kind of military action. But behind the scenes, the president’s national security and intelligence teams Joe Biden are calculating various scenarios and possible outcomes.
In secret meetings behind closed doors for Congress, as well as public press conferences, US officials are trying to paint a picture of the potentially dire results and risk Putin poses.
There is a strong desire among US officials to explain to the public why Ukraine’s fate could usher in an era of insecurity and economic destabilization that could spread across the world.
Russia continues to add forces in the region almost daily, according to estimates by United States, and soon you may have enough to start an operation. Given everything Putin has done, in addition to his public rhetoric about Ukraine and natoUS officials believe he will be able to make a decision soon, and he may be more likely to move forward.
Employees constantly emphasize that their intelligence drives them to make these estimates, but they are just estimates.
For example, if Putin were to unleash all of his military ground and air might on the Ukrainian capital Kiev, the city could fall within 48 hours. They also reckon that the Russian president could decide on a multi-pronged operation, sending forces from various directions across Ukraine to quickly break the Ukrainian military’s ability to fight as a cohesive force, a Russian strategy that is a classic military move.
THE Pentagon openly hinted at the status of potential Russian invasion forces. “Putin continues to add forces, combined arms, offensive capabilities,” Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby said earlier this week.
“He showed no signs of being interested or willing to ease tensions.” Putin has not only infantry and missile forces, but hundreds of fighter planes and bombers, as well as attack helicopters, at his disposal.
“There’s a potential they can unleash with very little warning,” warned the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, at a Jan. 28 press conference, offering a brutal assessment.
“Given the type of forces that are willing … if this were to be unleashed on Ukraine, it would be significant, very significant, and would result in a significant amount of casualties,” Milley said. “You can imagine what it would be like in dense urban areas, along highways and so on. It would be awful. It would be terrible.”
Based on publicly available weather calculations, the ideal time for a Russian invasion would be while the ground freezes so that heavy equipment can move around easily. US officials said Putin would understand he needed to act by the end of March.
Source: CNN Brasil

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