As Russian forces suffer a string of impressive defeats in Ukraine, Moscow is bolstering Beijing’s support for its invasion ahead of an important meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping this week.
Russian troops were forced to flee the strategic city of Izium – their main stronghold in northeastern Ukraine – on Saturday after a rapid Ukrainian counteroffensive.
It was Moscow’s worst defeat since Kiev’s withdrawal in March and a sign that the war may be entering a new phase.
Last week, Ukrainian forces recaptured more than 3,000 square kilometers of territory – more than Russian forces have captured in all their operations since April.
Back in Russia, senior Russian and Chinese officials have come together to pave the way for a much-anticipated meeting between Putin and Xi on the sidelines of a regional summit in Uzbekistan — the first face-to-face meeting since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
According to the Russian parliament, a top Chinese leader has expressed explicit support for Russia’s war on Ukraine – allegations that are not included in the Chinese side’s statement and run counter to previous efforts by Beijing to maintain a veneer of neutrality.
On Thursday and Friday, China’s top lawmaker Li Zhanshu — a close ally of Xi and a third-tier leader of the Chinese Communist Party — met with Vyacheslav Volodin, chairman of the Russian State Duma, and other Russian lawmakers in Moscow after attending an economic meeting. forum in the eastern city of Vladivostok.
According to a statement from the Duma, Li assured its members that “China understands and supports Russia on issues representing its vital interests, in particular the situation in Ukraine.”
“We see that the United States and its NATO allies are expanding their presence near Russian borders, seriously threatening national security and the lives of Russian citizens. we are providing our assistance,” Li said.
“On the Ukrainian issue, we see how they put Russia in an impossible situation. And in this case, Russia made an important choice and responded firmly,” she added.
Beijing has steadfastly refused to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine or even refer to it as a “war”. Instead, it has repeatedly blamed the conflict on NATO and the United States.
But previously, Chinese officials have not publicly endorsed the “necessity” of Russia’s invasion or admitted that Beijing was “providing assistance.”
This unambiguous supporting language is missing from the Chinese reading of meetings. In fact, in the Chinese version, Li is not mentioned as making any reference to Ukraine.
According to the official Xinhua News Agency, Li expressed China’s willingness to “continue to work with Russia to firmly support each other on issues related to each other’s core interests and main concerns.”
Li also criticized the sanctions against Russia, calling for greater cooperation with Moscow in “fighting outside interference, sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction,” according to Xinhua. While it is not uncommon for China to omit the content of high-level meetings in its official readings, the significant discrepancy between the statements by Beijing and Moscow has caught the attention of experts.”
The Russian version went much further than any Chinese version. If they don’t clear this up with Beijing, it could really piss off some in Beijing,” wrote Brian Hart, a member of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Bad news for China?
Moscow and Beijing have emerged as closer partners in recent years as they both grapple with tensions with the West, with Xi and Putin declaring the two countries had a “no-limits” partnership weeks before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
But Russia’s recent setbacks in Ukraine could create a serious dilemma for China, just weeks before Xi is widely expected to secure a third term in power at a key Communist Party meeting.
“Beijing cannot stand by and see Russia defeated in Ukraine, because that will lead (at the very least) to a severely weakened Russia, which is a less useful ally and less capable of distracting Washington and (at most) can create political instability. in Moscow,” Hal Brands, professor of global affairs at Johns Hopkins University, wrote on Twitter.
At one extreme, Brands added, political instability in Moscow can create instability within the “strategic partnership” in which Xi has invested so much. “You can bet that as Russia’s position deteriorates, Putin will seek greater Chinese support. If Beijing does not find a way to provide such support, we could see greater tensions in the Sino-Russian partnership sooner than many analysts imagined. ” He wrote.
It is questionable to what extent China is willing to support Russia at the expense of its own interests and strategic goals. So far, Beijing has not provided direct military or financial aid to Moscow that could trigger sanctions from Washington.
Some experts see the growing relationship between China and Russia as primarily pragmatic, based on cost-benefit calculations that can easily change.
“The China-Russia relationship is not based on ‘shared values’ or a sense of respect/affection… It is mainly based on interests. And interests can change rapidly as dynamics change,” wrote Hart, the CSIS expert. “This does not mean that the China-Russia relationship is weak. Just that it’s not necessarily durable,” he added.
Source: CNN Brasil
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