Slicing of the PEC of Precatório has an impasse of at least BRL 43 billion

While the National Congress seeks a way out to enact at least part of the PEC dos Precatórios, approved with modifications by the Senate on Thursday (2), technicians and legislative consultants are making calculations of which fiscal space would be opened with the common sections in the text that had been endorsed by the Chamber.

It is estimated that at least R$43 billion would have to wait for a new deliberation by the deputies, which could compromise the reach of the Auxílio Brasil program and other discretionary expenses, including additional for the so-called rapporteur amendments in the 2022 Budget.

In these calculations, there would be a fiscal space between BRL 60 billion and BRL 65 billion already possible to be enacted – in the latest estimate of the Ministry of Economy, it would be BRL 62.2 billion, out of a total of BRL 106.1 billion open by the PEC. This amount is the result of the change in the calculation of the spending ceiling.

However, part of this amount would be consumed with the inflation adjustment of mandatory government expenditures on Social Security and the minimum wage, estimated between R$30 billion and R$35 billion.

For the Brazilian Aid with a minimum value of R$ 400, as President Jair Bolsonaro wishes, it is estimated that more than R$ 50 billion will be needed – therefore, the impasse with the enactment of the PEC by the Congress would put in check the intention to attend more than 20 million families, as the congressmen argued in the discussion of the text in the Senate. The government estimated to increase the assistance in relation to Bolsa Família from just under 15 million to 17 million beneficiaries.

The impasse related to the more than R$ 43 billion depends on the interpretation of the article related to the sub-ceiling of precatório. The Chamber provided until 2036 the deadline for payment of legal expenses at the amount applied before the inflation-adjusted expenditure ceiling, but the Senate reduced this period by five years, until 2026.

For this reason, there are, among interlocutors of the Chamber’s President, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), who defends that it is possible to enact the article of the PEC without the deadline set by the Senate and without the obligation to link these resources to Auxílio Brasil and to security expenses Social.

The president of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), and the leader of the government, Fernando Bezerra (MDB-PE), heard from senators that they would not give up these provisions in the text, hence the impasse to be resolved between the commands of the two Legislative Houses.