Temporary calm as the Fed begins to look at bonds, before new leads to the NFP

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This is what you need to know to trade today Wednesday, March 3:

Markets are relatively calm on Wednesday after the US dollar fell back on Tuesday, as a result of stable returns in the United States. The US ADP jobs report, ISM services PMI, additional speeches by Fed officials, and the UK budget promise a busy day, which also includes stimulus coming to the US Senate. .

Tranquillity: S&P 500 futures are on the up, the dollar remains lower and gold is consolidating its rally early Wednesday, as 10-year US Treasuries hold at 1.40%.

Fed: Lael Brainard, governor of the Federal Reserve, said the speed of movement in the bond markets “caught my eye,” a first statement of concern about the central bank’s debt settlement. His colleague Mary Daly repeated the message that the measure reflects optimism about growth. The Fed publishes its “Beige Book” that includes anecdotal evidence on the economy later Wednesday, and Chicago Fed Chairman Charles Evans also speaks.

Tips to the NFP: ADP’s labor market report is expected to show an increase of 177,000 private sector jobs in February, a hint ahead of Friday’s official NFP non-farm payroll figures. The ISM Services PMI Purchasing Managers Index is expected to remain at 58.7, but will show a slowdown in hiring. ISM’s manufacturing PMI beat estimates, highlighting the inflation component with a rebound.

See: US ISM Services PMI Preview for February: Expect Longer Than Expected

Stimulus: President Joe Biden urged the Senate to pass his $ 1.9 trillion bill without making significant changes. Democrats have already abandoned the inclusion of a minimum wage increase and face pressure to limit the scope of checks to individuals.

UK budget: Finance Minister Rishi Sunak will present a new budget for Britain, which will likely include an extension of the licensing plan until September. The government has already spent £ 300 billion on aid for the coronavirus. Plans to plug the hole in government coffers may consist of tax increases.

EU: Members of the European Central Bank continued to warn of rising sovereign bond yields and vowed to act if necessary. The German states will agree to extend the current restrictions until the end of March, while Italy is considering the possibility of imposing new restrictions until the beginning of April. Europe’s vaccination campaign remains slow. Final Markit Services PMIs released.

Vaccine: Biden announced a deal in which Merck will produce the Johnson and Johnson vaccine in something of a “wartime effort.” The White House intends to offer COVID-19 vaccines to all Americans by the end of May.

The Bitcoin It has been extending its recovery, topping $ 49,000 after a period of consolidation. Ethereum is trading above $ 1,500 and XRP is above $ 0.40.

Crude oil WTI hovers around $ 60 as tensions rise ahead of Thursday’s OPEC + meeting.


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