- The EUR/USD falls about 1,1300 since the preliminary data of the PMI of the Eurozone surprised with a contraction in May.
- The president of the USA, Trump, warns that Russia could avoid ending the war in Ukraine.
- Nagel of the ECB has hopes in a commercial agreement between the EU and the US.
EUR/USD drops 0.35% to about 1,1290 during negotiation hours in North America on Thursday. The main currency pair falls due to a recovery movement in the US dollar (USD). The USD recovers intradic losses and becomes slightly positive, while the fears of a fiscal crisis in the United States (USA) have deepened.
During the European negotiation hours, the House of Representatives approved by little the new fiscal bill of President Donald Trump and advanced it to the Senate, where he needed a simple majority for approval.
According to the Congress Budget Office, which is non -partisan, Trump’s tax cuts bill would increase US debt by 3.8 billion dollars during the next decade, which is currently 36.2 billion dollars. On Friday, Moody’s degraded the sovereign credit rating of the US to AA1 from AAA, citing concerns about the great debt, which led to a sharp increase in indebtedness costs for the administration.
In the front of monetary policy, Federal Reserve officials (FED) continue to argue in favor of maintaining interest rates at their current level amid unusually high uncertainty about US economic perspectives due to the imposition of new economic policies by President Trump.
On Wednesday, the JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO, Jamie Dimon, supported the Fed decision to maintain a restrictive interest rates guide, warning about the risks of stagflation derived from geopolitics, deficits and price pressures, Bloomberg reported. “The Fed is doing the right thing to wait and see before deciding on monetary policy,” said Dimon and added: “I do not agree that we are at a sweet point.”
Meanwhile, investors expect the preliminary data of the US GLOBAL S&P PMI for May, which will be published at 13:45 GMT.
What moves the market today: the EUR/USD falls while the euro serves under expected
- The downward movement in the EUR/USD is mainly driven by Low performance of the euro (EUR) after the publication of the surprisingly weak preliminary data of the HCOB purchase managers index (PMI) of the Eurozone for May. The report showed that the compound PMI fell to 49.5 from 50.4 in April, suggesting that general business activity decreased. A figure below the 50.0 threshold is considered a contraction in business activities.
- According to him PMI reportactivities in the services sector contracted unexpectedly since November 2024, while the manufacturing PMI contracted at a slower pace than expected. The contraction signals of business activity are unfavorable for the euro.
- In addition, the uncertainty about the result of the high -fire conversations between Russia and Ukraine in the city of the Vatican has also weighed over the euro. On Wednesday, the president of the United States (USA), Donald Trump, ruled out the hopes of a high fire after declare in a private telephone conference with European leaders that the Russian leader, Vladimir Putin, is not ready to end the war because he believes he is winning, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported. The decrease in the hopes of a truce between Russia and Ukraine could keep the euro at a disadvantage.
- There is a remarkable change in President Trump’s position on war in Ukraine regarding what he declared in a publication in Truth. Social at the beginning of this week, where both countries agreed immediate truce conversations and expressed confidence that both countries will focus on ending war in Ukraine. However, Trump did not provide a deadline for truce conversations.
- Another reason behind the pressure on the euro is the firm expectation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut the interest rates again at the June policy meeting. ECB officials have indicated the need for greater expansion of monetary policy to compensate for the downward risks for inflation of the Eurozone. “To be able to maintain inflation in the objective of 2%, [el BCE] It may have to be below the natural rate in the range of 1.5% to 2%, said the Governing Council of the ECB and governor of the Bank of Portugal, Mario Centeno, Wednesday.
- In the global field, the president of Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, has expressed confidence in the progress of commercial conversations with the US, stating that Washington and Brussels have recognized that commercial conflicts do not have winners, on German television outside the G7 meeting in Canada, Reuters reported. “I also believe that the American side now understands some things better, and I am a little more confident than perhaps a few days ago,” Nagel said.
Euro price today
The lower table shows the percentage of euro change (EUR) compared to the main currencies today. Euro was the weakest currency against the Japanese yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | Aud | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.34% | 0.09% | -0.06% | 0.17% | 0.26% | 0.56% | 0.28% | |
| EUR | -0.34% | -0.25% | -0.39% | -0.17% | -0.08% | 0.22% | -0.07% | |
| GBP | -0.09% | 0.25% | -0.17% | 0.08% | 0.17% | 0.46% | 0.18% | |
| JPY | 0.06% | 0.39% | 0.17% | 0.21% | 0.33% | 0.59% | 0.31% | |
| CAD | -0.17% | 0.17% | -0.08% | -0.21% | 0.11% | 0.39% | 0.10% | |
| Aud | -0.26% | 0.08% | -0.17% | -0.33% | -0.11% | 0.29% | -0.01% | |
| NZD | -0.56% | -0.22% | -0.46% | -0.59% | -0.39% | -0.29% | -0.29% | |
| CHF | -0.28% | 0.07% | -0.18% | -0.31% | -0.10% | 0.00% | 0.29% |
The heat map shows the percentage changes of the main currencies. The base currency is selected from the left column, while the contribution currency is selected in the upper row. For example, if you choose the euro of the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US dollar, the percentage change shown in the box will represent the EUR (base)/USD (quotation).
Technical analysis: EUR/USD falls about 1,1300
The EUR/USD falls about 1,1300 on Thursday. However, the short -term perspective of the torque is bullish since it remains above the 20 -day exponential (EMA) mobile average, which is around 1,1240.
The relative force index (RSI) of 14 periods oscillates within the range of 40.00-60.00, suggesting indecision among the operators.
Looking up, the maximum of April 28, 1,1425 will be the main resistance for the pair. On the contrary, the psychological level of 1.1000 will be a key support for the euros of the euro.
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
