The Fed will make two 0.25% hikes in the first quarter, followed by a long pause – Reuters poll

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The US Federal Reserve (Fed) will end its tightening cycle after raising 25 basis points at each of its next two policy meetings, and then likely hold interest rates steady for at least next year. The rest of the yearaccording to the majority of economists polled in the latest Reuters poll.

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More than 80% of respondents to the latest Reuters poll, 68 of 83, predicted that the Fed would drop to a 25 basis point hike at its January 31-February 1 meeting.

The remaining 15 see a rise of 50 basis points in two weeksbut only one of them was from a US bank that deals directly with the Fed.

Opinion on interest rates in the survey came in slightly behind the Fed’s recent forecasts, but the medians of the surveys on growth, inflation and unemployment were largely in agreement.

In response to an additional question, more than 60% of the respondents, 55 of 89, said the Fed was more likely to hold rates steady for at least the rest of the year than cut them. This view is consistent with the median projection of the survey that the first cut will occur in early 2024.

However, a significant minority, 34, said rate cuts this year were more likely than not, with 16 citing falling inflation as the main reason. Twelve pointed to a deeper economic recession and four to a sharp rise in unemployment.

Source: Fx Street

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