With less than a week before the US presidential election, the game seems over. Most national polls give Democratic candidate Joe Biden a lead that ranges between 8 and 12 points. And experts consider that, unlike 2016, the 7-day election gap is too large, even in the “Swing States,” the key states, for Trump to be able to close. Yet since the October 23 debate in which Trump tempered his usual excesses, his national rating has risen slightly while that of his Democratic opponent has slipped imperceptibly.
The first reason why the supporters of the outgoing president do not admit defeat is the exceptional mobilization of an army of volunteers determined to force victory. More important even than the one that Obama, in his day, had assembled. They would be 2.5 million, or 300,000 more than for the Democratic candidate of 2008. The work of these volunteers: go door to door by systematically visiting all those who, according to their lists, are listed as Republicans and may have some hesitation when it comes time to vote. (In the United States, although it is not compulsory, one declares oneself for one party or another.) And the volunteers for Trump have thus crisscrossed all the states where victory makes it possible to round up, even with a small lead, all the great voters. In a single week, they announced 500,000 hits in the “Swing States”. Even if the figure is inflated, the effort of the supporters of the president is a reality. While Biden’s campaign lags far behind in individual canvassing of voters. A slower start due to fears of the coronavirus, for which the Democratic candidate, as we know, has shown infinitely more caution than his opponent.
Biden’s stark stance on abortion could cause him to lose voters
If the second debate of the campaign remained muted – and, moreover, quite boring – it gave Joe Biden the opportunity to clarify his position on two sensitive subjects. The first is abortion. The Democratic candidate made it clear that if the Supreme Court, with the appointment of Amy Barrett, reversed the 2016 ruling, validating a 1973 ruling, which reaffirms this possibility given to women, he would pass a law to reaffirm this right or would expand the composition of the Supreme Court to restore the old balance. Even if he, a practicing Catholic, is against abortion.
If this subject may seem more or less digested in Europe, it remains extremely sensitive in the United States, where many States, against the federal rule, have passed laws to considerably reduce its scope. The Evangelical Churches, in particular, are standing firm. “Pro-life” demonstrations take place regularly, surgeons who perform the procedure are threatened, and around 20 states are said to be awaiting a new Supreme Court ruling to ban abortion completely. So this is a subject on which Biden’s strong position could cause him to lose voters. Among the evangelists and also the Latinos, a community where the pro-life faithful are numerous.
The other risk Biden took during the debate is economic. It concerns the oil industry. Trump, who wanted to force him to take a stand on sustainable development, immediately proclaimed victory when his opponent admitted that he wanted a change to reduce the share of fossil fuels in growth. “Listen to this important statement from my opponent, you constituents of Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania. He wants to destroy the industry which makes the wealth of your States ”, he insisted.
Respondents tend not to admit that they will vote for him
The mobilization of his armies of fanatics and their door-to-door offensive, the debate on abortion and the future of oil, these are the assets on which Trump is counting to catch up. Not nationally, but, as it had done in 2016, in the states that matter. And especially those – Texas, Florida, Georgia, Michigan – where the gap between the two opponents is, as pollsters say, “within the margin of error”. Especially since supporters of the president have noticed that – as it was said in France for the National Rally vote – those polled, given Trump’s bad media reputation, tend not to admit that they will vote for him. Biden’s lead in the polls would therefore not be what is advertised.
With a week before the vote, the US election is not as played as many say.
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