Uncertainty with Brazil’s economy increased again in June. This month, the Economic Uncertainty Indicator (IIE), measured by the Brazilian Institute of Economics, of the Getúlio Vargas Foundation (Ibre / FGV), rose 0.5 point.
With the result, the indicator reached 116.4 points, as announced this Thursday (30).
The rise reflects increased uncertainty. The study points out that the unfavorable performance was influenced, in particular, by macroeconomic aspects, such as the price increase in the period.
“The worsening of the fiscal scenario, which was once again highlighted in the economy, the persistent and widespread inflation in Brazil and in the world, the uncertainties regarding world growth and the proximity of the presidential elections contribute to the result”, emphasizes Anna Carolina Gouveia, indicator coordinator.
The economist also highlights the behavior of the IIE compared to previous periods. “The indicator remains at a moderately high level, 1.4 points above the high average of 115 points observed between July 2015 and February 2020, the last month before the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic”, he ponders.
The researcher explains that, although there is no maximum or minimum reference value, the standard is always around 100 points. When the index is at this level, it means a moderate scenario. That is, uncertainty with the economy is neither high nor low.
To carry out the survey, the research collects data from the main Brazilian newspapers and the financial market. The indicator is made up of two components: the IIE-BR, which assesses the frequency with which economic uncertainty is mentioned in the news. It rose 0.6 point this edition to 114.7 points on aggregate.
The IIE-Br Expectation is responsible for measuring the variation of forecasts by economic analysts in relation to inflation, exchange rate and interest in the following year. The component remained stable at 116.4 points.
In the methodology, the first component has a participation of 80% in the final result, while the second contributes with 20%.
Source: CNN Brasil