US Elections: Here’s Who the Winners and Losers Are So Far

What night!

The 2022 midterm elections in the United States have already taken place, and while the vote count continues in many places and there are still many undefined races, the outcome was not what most political analysts had hoped for.

The Democrats were expected to suffer considerable losses in the House, but they appear to have held firm, despite likely ending up in the minority.

The battle for control of the Senate is a close contest, with Democrats having managed to win a single seat so far in Pennsylvania. It is still too early to announce the results of the main elections in Arizona and Nevada, and the projection of the CNN is that the Senate race in Georgia goes to the second round on December 6th.

Below are some of the biggest midterm winners and losers to date.

winners

Ron DeSantis: on a disappointing night for Republicans, the governor of Florida was a major standout. He won by hand over former governor Charlie Crist and took the second term.

The victory — and the margin by which he won — could well serve as a springboard for DeSantis’s national ambitions, as they pave the way for the argument that he can do for the country what he just did in Florida. DeSantis jumped to conclusions in the wake of his victory, calling it “a historic achievement” (get it…) and Florida the state “where the ‘left seal’ will die” (right). Obviously, DeSantis comes out of the election on a positive tide, and the GOP wants to see what he does next.

Josh Shapiro: if the idea is to find the next generation of Democratic Party stars, Shapiro is the man, someone who easily took victory in the race for governor of Pennsylvania last Tuesday (8).

Shapiro is articulate, brilliant and has clearly proven he has traction among voters in a swing state. Shapiro’s victory is also a gain for electoral security. The governor of Pennsylvania appoints the state’s election coordinator, and Shapiro’s opponent — Republican Doug Mastriano — was a 2020 election denier.

Marjorie Taylor Greene: if Republicans had caught the wave so many were predicting in the run-up to the election, the party would have been on the cusp of enjoying a comfortable majority of seats. But it seems that is not what is happening in the country.

The most likely outcome — and there are still many key disputes undefined — is likely to be a narrow Republican majority. That would be good news for Greene and his colleagues on the House Freedom Bench.

As this group represents a solid block of votes, Greene and his entourage could maintain their support of the Republican leadership to win concessions and gain advantages. In such a scenario, any Republican in the House Speaker’s seat—Kevin McCarthy being the favorite—would have to make sure they agreed with the Freedom Bench before any major vote.

Simon Rosenberg: Rosenberg, a longtime Democratic strategist, was always saying that the apparent Republican surge in the final weeks of the race was misleading — and fueled by a series of Republican-sponsored polls that shifted voting averages in his party’s favor. And he was right. Full stop.

Gretchen Whitmer: the governor of Michigan had ups and downs during her first term. On Tuesday, however, she beat Republican Tudor Dixon, leading by nearly 10 points on Wednesday morning. Whitmer, who was on Joe Biden’s shortlist for vice president in 2020, solidified her status as a force to remember in the Democratic Party’s future.

Sarah Huckabee Sanders: the former White House press secretary in the Trump administration has achieved an election victory to become the next governor of Arkansas. It was to be expected. Now let’s see what Sanders will do to expand his appeal beyond state borders. She’s definitely someone who’s going to be on the national candidate pool at some point in the near future.

Joe Manchin: no matter what happens in the other Senate races, what we do know is: the majority of the house is going to have a very narrow margin—again. That means Manchin, the Democrat from West Virginia, is likely to once again be a deciding vote on critical proposals over the next two years.

And if we take the last two years as a baseline, it’s a very powerful position. Plus: Manchin will run for re-election for a third term in 2024…

Losers

Donald Trump: it’s hard to imagine things could get even worse for the former president on Tuesday night. Republicans did not sweep the country with their Republican wave, and the rise of DeSantis was one of the big headlines of Election Day. (Not to mention the fact that Georgia Governor Brian Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, two Republicans who provoked Trump’s wrath, won re-election.)

And you can see that Trump is getting nervous with DeSantis, as he decided to send a warning about the 2024 presidential race on Tuesday (8). I don’t think anything — not even last night’s results — will change Trump’s trajectory in 2024. But for all his hustle (and there will be a lot more of it), it’s clear that Tuesday was not the night Trump had hoped for.

Beto O’Rourke: O’Rourke fell short of his challenge to Texas Governor Greg Abbott on Tuesday night, meaning he has already lost three consecutive elections: 1) the 2018 Senate race to Ted Cruz; 2) the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries; 3) and the 2022 gubernatorial race.

In politics, as in baseball, it’s usually three strikes and you’re out. It’s hard to imagine O’Rourke running for another office so soon — it was a marked defeat for someone who was considered a rising Democratic star just a few years ago.

Stacey Abrams: Speaking of stars that have lost their luster, the Georgia Democrat lost the race for state governor outright as she failed to replicate the coalition that brought her closer to victory four years ago.

Abrams, who emerged from the first election race along with anger among Democrats across the country, looked far less impressive this time around. And with two defeats in her two most recent contests, it’s hard to see how she will make a political comeback.

Charlie Crist: It’s hard to imagine that Democrats aren’t regretting their decision to nominate the former Republican governor as their party’s candidate against DeSantis. Crist, who lost the government to Rick Scott in 2014, never stood a chance against DeSantis and created almost no resistance throughout the campaign. This appears to be the end of the road for Crist in the Florida political world.

Kevin McCarthy: yes, it’s weird to have the man who could be the next Speaker of the House in the underdog category. But think of McCarthy’s situation if the Republicans gain control of the House and he is chosen to lead the party: a narrow majority controlled — or at least heavily influenced — by his party’s most extreme representatives. (See the Marjorie Taylor Greene thread above.) These forces would have a strong advantage over every vote McCarthy tried to propose. Getting anything done — let alone whatever the House Freedom Bench wants, like impeaching Biden — is going to be tricky.

Republican map expansion in the Senate

In the final stretch of the campaign, some Senate Republican strategists suggested the party could put three states — New Hampshire, Colorado and Washington — on the line, creating more avenues for a majority.

None of the three election races came close. The incumbent Democrats not only won, but were also leading by double digits on Wednesday morning.

electoral deniers

Several election deniers running for governor across the country sided with the losers. In Wisconsin, Tim Michels lost. In the state of Michigan, Dixon fell short. Mastiano lost badly in Pennsylvania. Ditto Dan Cox, in Maryland. And Darren Bailey in Illinois too. THE CNN has yet to announce the outcome of the Arizona governorship race, but Republican Kari Lake is behind.