The hours following the end of presidential voting in the United States are often marked by unpredictability – just look at the count of the 2020 presidential election, marked by the high number of votes cast by mail or in person in advance due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
The results of the North American elections are divided into two stages: counting and certification. The first part consists of the counting and validation of votes carried out by election officials in each state. Certification is the process in which state authorities formalize the election results.
Most states now offer some form of early voting, either by mail or in person. Rules vary by state.
In Pennsylvania, officials are bracing for another presidential election in which the state could once again be the deciding battleground and take days to determine the winner.
What are exit polls?
Exit polls are large-scale surveys conducted by a consortium of news outlets among voters on Election Day. They are conducted as voters leave polling places on Election Day, and in many states at early voting locations, and also by phone or online before Election Day to count mail-in and early in-person voting.
How can CNN project the winner of a race without any votes counted?
This is a task that CNN takes it very seriously. Based on past election results, exit polls, recent opinion polls, early voter turnout, and other factors, it is sometimes possible to project that a particular candidate will win a race.
If there is any chance of a turnaround, the CNN will refrain from projecting a race.
How does CNN make projections?
Using a mix of many factors, including current and past election results, real-time exit polls, recent opinion polls, voter registration data and more, the so-called “decision desk” in literal translation) of CNN can often reliably project that a candidate has received enough support to win the state.
It is a projection, however, and not the final word. State officials and courts have the official say.
What is a “key race” for CNN? Who decides this?
“Key race” is a subjective term. Most political observers generally agree that only a subset of races are truly competitive in November, and these are generally considered the key races. Political parties spend more money in these races. Reporters spend more time covering them.
Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are considered “swing states.” For Kamala or Trump to win the race, it is essential that they win the votes of these regions.
Will we know who wins on election day?
Do not count on final answers in all disputes on election night – especially considering that Americans, in addition to the president/vice, will also elect deputies and senators.
With so many people voting early and by mail and so many close races, there’s a good chance it will take days or weeks to find out who won some races. The margins of power in the House and Senate are close enough that it will take days to know who will have the majority in each House.
In Pennsylvania, officials are bracing for another presidential election in which the state could once again be the deciding battleground and take days to determine the winner.
Seth Bluestein, a Republican commissioner in vote-rich Philadelphia, put the chances of knowing the winner on election night at “almost zero.”
Meanwhile, in battleground Wisconsin, a final count is not expected until the morning after the election, said Ann Jacobs, a Democrat who chairs the state’s election commission.
While several other states have taken steps to speed up vote counting in the four years since the 2020 post-election chaos, political gridlock in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin has prevented a change that could have paved the way for earlier projections: the ability to begin opening and process mail-in ballots before Election Day.
Election observers worry that delays in counting mail-in votes could give the public a false sense of who is winning the election. This could create a potential “red mirage” — showing Republican candidates ahead initially before more Democratic-leaning mail or early votes are processed and added to the count — and leave an opening for false narratives about voter fraud to flourish as the country awaits the results.
Chaos during the 2020 count
In 2020, it took news organizations four days to project that Joe Biden had won the state and therefore the presidency. During this period, misinformation spread. Protests broke out at the Philadelphia counting center.
Then-President Donald Trump baselessly accused Pennsylvania election workers of trying to commit fraud. His lawyer at the time, Rudy Giuliani, held a now infamous press conference full of falsehoods at Four Seasons Total Landscaping.
In Wisconsin, another state Biden defeated on his way to the White House, Trump falsely attributed his defeat to “surprise ballot dumps” in heavily Democratic Milwaukee.
The jump in Biden votes came as the city reported all of its “absentee” ballots at the same time — something that had been widely anticipated because state law prevents early processing of mail-in ballots.
In Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, election officials are still blocked from beginning to process mail-in ballots before 7 a.m. on Election Day, although election officials in both states have called for changes.
Processing mail-in ballots takes time. Workers often must first verify the voter’s identity, open the ballot return envelope, remove the ballot and sometimes flatten it so it can pass through a tabulating machine.
Delays “are not fraud, they are simply logistics,” Jacobs said.
“It is very, very unlikely that we will know who won the presidency or control of the House on election night,” said David Becker, a former U.S. Department of Justice elections lawyer who serves as executive director of the nonpartisan Center for Election Innovation and Research .
“That’s how the process works,” he added. “We shouldn’t expect at 8 p.m. to flip a switch and count 160 million multi-page ballots with dozens of races on them instantly. It takes time to get it right.”
Could there be a draw in 2024?
With two presidential candidates fighting over a mere 538 Electoral College votes, a tie scenario is more than possible. In fact, it’s kind of surprising that there has only been one tied election so far, in 1800, between Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr.
This tie was the result of a failure of coordination between Democrats and Republicans, but it led to the country’s first “contingent election,” decided in the House of Representatives.
Although a draw is not a likely result, it is something to be prepared for. Here is a plausible scenario for the 2024 election:
If Kamala wins Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona and Nevada and a single electoral vote in Nebraska, all of which Joe Biden won in 2020, but loses Pennsylvania and Georgia, there is a tie, 269-269. The website 270 to Win there are also more scenarios of tied elections.
Unlike all other states, Maine and Nebraska award two electors to the statewide winner and one to the winner of each congressional district. These individual, competitive electoral votes in Maine and Nebraska become extremely consequential in potential tie scenarios.
If there is a 269-269 tie, or if a third party or independent candidate wins electoral votes and prevents one candidate from reaching a 270 majority in the Electoral College, the next step is called a “contingent election.”
Under the 12th Amendment, enacted after that divisive 1800 election, if no candidate receives a majority of Electoral College votes, the new Congress, which would have just been sworn in on January 3, chooses the president. The Senate would choose vice president.
According to an analysis by the Congressional Research Service, a contingent election would take place on January 6, immediately after members of Congress met to count the electoral votes and determined that no candidate had a majority.
This content was originally published in US elections: how votes are counted and why the result could take days on the CNN Brasil website.
Source: CNN Brasil
Bruce Belcher is a seasoned author with over 5 years of experience in world news. He writes for online news websites and provides in-depth analysis on the world stock market. Bruce is known for his insightful perspectives and commitment to keeping the public informed.
