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USD/CHF resumes uptrend amid mixed US data and stable Swiss CPI figures

  • Mixed US Non-Farm Payrolls data did not initially support the Dollar, but the ISM Manufacturing PMI lifted sentiment.
  • Swiss inflation is above estimates, but weak retail sales could deter the SNB from tightening monetary policy.
  • The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 14 could be key for the pair.

He Swiss Franc (CHF) lost traction in front of US dollar (USD) in the middle of the session on Friday in New York, after a series of economic data from the United States (US) strengthened the USD. The USD/CHF pair fell towards a daily low of 0.8795 before resuming its latest three-day uptrend and is trading around 0.8850, 0.28% above its opening price.

Swiss Franc Losing Ground as Improved US Business Activity and Bond Yields Support Dollar

Financial markets remain calm after a very busy week on the US economic calendar. The August Non-Farm Payrolls numbers were mixed, as the US economy added 187,000 jobs, above estimates of 177,000, which surprisingly didn’t make a dent in the Dollar, as the unemployment rate increased by 3.8 % YoY, above forecasts of 3.5%. The dollar’s weakness came as investors speculated that the Fed would not tighten monetary conditions in September, while reducing bets that the US central bank would do so in November.

However, USD/CHF sellers were caught off guard as the ISM Manufacturing PMI improved to 47.6 from 46.4 in July and beat expectations of 47. Most of the report’s sub-components strengthened, painting a brighter outlook. positive for business activity in the US.

Another reason supporting the dollar was the recovery in US bond yields, which pushed the US Dollar Index (DXY) above the 104,000 mark, a tailwind for the USD/CHF pair.

In Switzerland, inflation rose 1.6%, beating estimates of 1.5%, and was unchanged from July’s figures. Although the data bolsters the chances of further tightening by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), a worse-than-expected retail sales report in July could discourage the central bank from tightening monetary policy. Traders should be aware that the current SNB interest rate sits at 1.75%, and the chances of it remaining unchanged hover over 70%.

Given the background, USD/CHF could resume its uptrend and test 0.9000, but the upcoming US Federal Reserve meeting on September 14 may change the outlook before the Fed decision.

USD/CHF Price Analysis: Technical Perspective

The USD/CHF daily chart shows the pair entering a consolidation phase, albeit one that is trending higher, once buyers recaptured the 50-day moving average (DMA) at 0.8782. Furthermore, the major pairs have crossed above a bearish resistance trend line drawn from the March 2023 highs, a relevant five-month old trend line, which, once broken, the pair would have a direct path to try 0.9000. A break of the latter would expose the confluence of a previous support-turned-resistance trend line and the 200 DMA around 0.9040/65 before buyers set their sights on the May 31 high of 0.9147. Conversely, downside risks emerge below the current week’s low of 0.8744.


Last price today 0.8855
Today Change Daily 0.0021
today’s daily variation 0.24
today’s daily opening 0.8834
daily SMA20 0.879
daily SMA50 0.8786
daily SMA100 0.8882
daily SMA200 0.907
previous daily high 0.8846
previous daily low 0.8772
Previous Weekly High 0.8876
previous weekly low 0.876
Previous Monthly High 0.8876
Previous monthly minimum 0.869
Fibonacci daily 38.2 0.8818
Fibonacci 61.8% daily 0.88
Daily Pivot Point S1 0.8788
Daily Pivot Point S2 0.8742
Daily Pivot Point S3 0.8714
Daily Pivot Point R1 0.8863
Daily Pivot Point R2 0.8892
Daily Pivot Point R3 0.8938

Source: Fx Street

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