USD/CHF with a limited bullish potential as uncertainty about tariffs lies the feeling

• The USD/CHF quotes near a critical resistance zone while the markets evaluate the ongoing tariff uncertainty and the weak economic data of the United States.
• The feeling of the consumer in the US was weakened in early May, generating concerns about economic perspectives.
• The technical levels suggest that the bullish potential is limited about 0.8540, with a strong support around 0.8320.

The USD/CHF torque is contributing up on Friday, testing a significant resistance zone about 0.8380 while operators digest mixed economic signals from the United States and ongoing global commercial tensions. In spite of a modest gain of 0.28% in the day, the upward potential of the PAR is still restricted by broader concerns about the economic resilience of the US and the uncertainty in tariff policy. The dollar index (DXY), an indicator of the dollar performance against six main currencies, is contributing flat around 100.80, reflecting a cautious tone in the market.

The US dollar is finding support while the feeling of broader risk is still fragile. However, recent economic data has increased concerns about the growth prospects of the United States. The feeling of the May preliminary consumer of the University of Michigan fell to 50.8, from 52.2 in April, below market expectations and highlighting a decrease in household trust. Inflation expectations have also increased, with one year forecast rising to 7.3% from 6.5%, while the five -year perspective increased to 4.6% from 4.4%, suggesting that pressures on prices are becoming more rooted.

Adding to this, April IPP data were softer than expected, with the general IPP at -0.5% month by month, while the underlying IPP also contracted -0.4%, generating new concerns about the pricing power of US companies. Meanwhile, the US president, Donald Trump, has hinted at a new wave of tariffs that will be implemented in the next two to three weeks, clouding even more the prospects of global trade and the economic stability of the US.

Technical analysis

From a technical perspective, the USD/CHF faces a critical test in 0.8540, which aligns with the fibonacci setback of 23.6% of the bearish trend from the 2022 peak. This level also marks a previous significant support of 2015 that was broken earlier this year, reinforcing its importance as a resistance zone. A sustained rupture above this area would indicate a broader trend reversion, potentially pointing to the midpoint of the fall of 2022-2025 in 0.8706.

However, the failure to overcome 0.8540 could trigger a deeper correction, with immediate support in 0.8320, a long-term key fibonacci level that previously acted as a structural basis in 2015-2016. Additional downward objectives include 0.8185 and the minimum of the long -term cycle about 0.7770.

The relative force index (RSI) remains low, around 37.2 in the weekly graph, indicating that the bassist impulse is decreasing but far from reversing. The torque is also testing its simple mobile (SMA) of 10 weeks about 0.8419, a short -term critical resistance level.

Without a decisive breakdown above 0.8540, it is likely that the USD/CHF remains limited in the short term, with the risk of a renewed sales pressure if US data continues to disappoint. The broader technical image remains bassist, with the torque needing a monthly closure confirmed above this level to confirm a trend reversal.

Daily graph