USD/JPY Price Analysis: 200 hourly SMA around 135.60 could continue to cap the upside

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  • USD/JPY recovers a few pips from the daily low, although there is no continuation buying.
  • The breakout of the ascending trendline and the failure near the 200 hourly SMA favors the bears.
  • Mixed technical indicators warrant caution before confirming a short-term top for the pair.

The USD/JPY pair has attracted some buying near the 134.80-134.75 area on Monday and has risen to a fresh daily high at the start of the European session. However, the intraday rally has seen no continuation beyond the 135.50 area and has been seen militatively amid limited US dollar price action.

Last week’s sustained break below an uptrend line from two weeks ago and subsequent drop below the 200 hourly SMA was seen as a key factor for the bears. The latter, currently around the 135.60 zone, should act as a pivot point and determine the intraday movement of the USD/JPY pair.

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Technical indicators, for their part, are still far from confirming a negative bias on the daily chart. As such, it is prudent to wait for a strong follow-up of selling before confirming that the USD/JPY pair has topped in the short term and positioning for any further bearish moves.

From current levels, weakness below the 135.00 level could still find decent support near the 134.80-134.75 region. This is closely followed by 134.50, which if broken decisively would spark further technical selling and make the USD/JPY pair vulnerable to further decline.

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The pair could break through the 134.00 round level and accelerate the decline to test the next relevant hurdle near the 133.60 area. The corrective decline could extend further towards 133.00 before the USD/JPY pair drops to the 132.40-132.30 support zone.

On the other hand, the push above the 200 hourly SMA has the potential to lift the USD/JPY pair back above 136.00. Any move higher will attract fresh sellers near the 136.60 resistance zone and fade ahead of 137.00, or a 24-year high hit last week.

USD/JPY 1 hour chart


USD/JPY key levels


last price today 135.3
daily change today 0.09
Today’s daily variation in % 0.07
Daily opening today 135.21
daily SMA20 134.79
daily SMA50 131.29
daily SMA100 125.72
daily SMA200 119.86
Previous daily high 135.99
Previous Daily Low 134.74
Previous Weekly High 137
Previous Weekly Low 134.52
Previous Monthly High 137
Previous Monthly Low 128.65
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 135.22
Daily Fibonacci of 61.8% 135.51
Daily Pivot Point S1 134.64
Daily Pivot Point S2 134.07
Daily Pivot Point S3 133.39
Daily Pivot Point R1 135.88
Daily Pivot Point R2 136.55
Daily Pivot Point R3 137.12

Source: Fx Street

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