USD/JPY Price Analysis: Falls 200 points after sellers stepped in looking for the 200 DMA around 135.00

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  • USD/JPY breaks a trend line from five months ago, aiming to reach the 200 day EMA around 134.99.
  • Oscillators in bearish territory consolidate the downtrend, but the overbought RSI could stop traders shorting USD/JPY.
  • USD/JPY: After recapturing the 200 day EMA, a drop towards 131.70 is forecast.

The USD/JPY Plunges below 136.00, extending its losses towards the 135.20 zone, spurred by risk aversion momentum and weakening manufacturing activity in the United States (US), posing a risk of recession . Therefore, USD/JPY sellers stepped in, below Wednesday’s low of 137.64, sending the pair down more than 250 points. At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading at 135.34.

USD/JPY Price Analysis: Technical Perspective

USD/JPY turned from neutral to bearish once it broke above the confluence of the 20 and 100 day EMAs around 140.46/50. Notably, the 9 Period Rate of Change (ROC) is gaining momentum, which means that the sellers are in control. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) entered an oversold condition, which means that USD/JPY could consolidate around the 200-day EMA at 134.99 before continuing lower.

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Furthermore, USD/JPY fell below a 5-month rising trend line from the June lows, compounding the decline. In conclusion, USD/JPY has a short-term bearish bias.

Therefore, the first support for USD/JPY would be the 200 day EMA at 134.99. A break below will expose crucial psychological levels such as the 134.00 and 133.00 figures, followed by the Aug 11 low at 131.73.

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Key USD/JPY Technical Levels


Last price today 135.34
Today I change daily -2.74
Today Daily Change % -1.98
today’s daily opening 138.08
daily SMA20 141.42
daily SMA50 144.46
daily SMA100 141.22
daily SMA200 134.32
previous daily high 139.9
previous daily low 137.65
Previous Weekly High 142.25
previous weekly low 138.05
Previous Monthly High 148.82
Previous monthly minimum 137.5
Daily Fibonacci of 38.2% 138.51
Daily Fibonacci of 61.8% 139.04
Daily Pivot Point S1 137.19
Daily Pivot Point S2 136.3
Daily Pivot Point S3 134.95
Daily Pivot Point R1 139.44
Daily Pivot Point R2 140.79
Daily Pivot Point R3 141.68

Source: Fx Street

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