He USD/JPY plunged 1.4% to 156.20, its lowest close in six weeks, according to the DBS Senior FX Strategist Philip Wee.
USD/JPY will fall to 150 by the end of 2024
“USD/JPY started to retreat below 160 on July 11 after spending 11 days in a range of 160-162. Yesterday’s break below 158 (50-day moving average) opened the door towards 155.10 (100-day moving average). The yield-led carry trade against JPY faces internal and external risks.”
“Aside from suspicious currency interventions by the Japanese government, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said last month that the central bank could raise interest rates again at its July 31 meeting. Tomorrow, the consensus expects Japan’s national CPI inflation to rise for a second month to 2.9% year-on-year in June from 2.8% in May, and excluding food, to 2.7% from 2.5%.”
“The BoJ is likely to announce a detailed plan to reduce its balance sheet. On the US front, the Fed is opening the door to start lowering US interest rates this year, while US presidential front-runner Donald Trump has criticised massive JPY weakness. We maintain our forecast for USD/JPY to fall to 150 by end-2024 and to 139 by December 2025.”
Source: Fx Street
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