USD / TRY hits another all-time high beyond 9.3000

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  • USD / TRY extends the upside above 9.3000 on Monday.
  • Turkey’s 10-year bond yields are above 19.00%, the highest level since May 2019.
  • The dollar remains offered and pushes the pair higher.

The lyre is well on the defensive and now helps the USD/TRY to record a new all-time high just above the 9.3000 level at the beginning of the week.

USD / TRY fragile ahead of CBRT event

The USD / TRY entered its third consecutive week of gains on Monday thanks to the further depreciation of the Turkish currency and the moderate recovery of the dollar. In fact, the pair has advanced in six of the last seven weeks since early September and was (once again) the worst performing emerging market currency over the past week.

The depreciation of the Turkish currency intensified in previous sessions after President Erdogan fired three CBRT officials who were against the latest decision by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) to reduce the one-week buyback rate by 100 points. basics in the September event.

Still in Turkey, it is worth remembering that the IMF revised up its GDP forecast for the country and now expects the economy to expand by 9% this year and 3.3% in 2022.

Later in the week, Turkey’s consumer confidence will be released on Thursday ahead of the key CBRT monetary policy meeting. The consensus among investors now expects the central bank to further reduce the policy rate by another 100 bps to 17%.

Technical levels

So far, the pair is gaining 0.33% at 9.2864 and a drop below 9.0379 (10-day SMA) would target 8.9221 (20-day SMA) and finally 8.8317 (October 4 monthly low). On the other hand, the next rising barrier is lined up at 9.3060 (October 18 all-time high) followed by 10.0000 (round level).


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