Wave of arrests under Putin's government fulfills Prigozhin's “posthumous wish”; understand

Removing a long-serving defense minister from his post is nothing out of the ordinary. The arrest of five high-ranking officials, however, is more than just a search for fresh blood – especially in Vladimir Putin's Russia.

Following the dismissal of Sergei Shoigu as Defense Minister, a wave of arrests dismantled the top echelons of the Russian Defense Ministry under the pretext of an anti-corruption campaign.

The moment is as intriguing as the arrests and reshuffles. After nearly three years of failure on the battlefields in Ukraine, Russia has just gained the upper hand.

In recent weeks, Moscow has launched a largely successful offensive in the north towards Kharkiv, along with victories in the Donbass region also in the east.

Ukraine's personnel shortages and dwindling munitions supply – compounded by months of delay in the US Congress in approving a military support package – also helped reverse Russia's fortunes.

The question that remains is: why now shake the Ministry responsible for winning the war?

Analysts who spoke to CNN International They described the Ministry of Defense as one of the most corrupt in the country.

Russian state media has been publicizing military contracts worth exorbitant amounts of money and publicly shaming senior Ministry officials and their lavish lifestyles.

But, as one analyst told CNN what we are witnessing is a “very complex polycentric game”, which is related to timing and Putin’s existential quest for victory against the West.

Alerts from “Putin’s Chef”

Looming over this change is the ghost of Yevgeny Prigozhin, former head of the Wagner mercenary group, who was known as “Putin’s Chef.”

Before his death, he expressed hatred for Shoigu and Russia's top general, Valery Gerasimov, with expletive-laden barbs, accusing them and the Ministry of corruption and incompetence.

Prigozhin led a mutiny in Moscow that was supposed to end with the overthrow of Shoigu and Gerasimov. Instead, the action put Vladmir Putin in an embarrassing position and challenged his authority.

Putin responded by naming Prigozhin as a traitor and stripping him of his assets, all before dying in a plane crash alongside his most experienced advisers.

Since then, Putin has kept inefficiencies in the Ministry's weapons procurement out of public view, as well as his failed invasion of Ukraine and allegations of corruption. The reason: not showing any instinctive reactions after the riot.

Doing so could place his authority and strength under even greater questioning from the Russian people.

Putin was probably awaiting his re-election by the Russian people in March before moving the pieces against the Defense Minister.

The changes occurred shortly after the Victory Day celebrations, on May 9, which Putin and Shoigu attended, side by side, in an apparently friendly coexistence.

Despite his removal as defense minister, Shoigu will remain in Putin's orbit after being transferred to a new role as secretary.

Putin's interest: Ukraine

Tatiyana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, told CNN International that what matters is not whether Prigozhin was right about the officials' corruption.

In Russia, she said, “right and wrong do not exist in politics – only interests matter.”

Putin's interest is to keep his house in order but, more pressingly, to achieve victory in Ukraine. The Ministry of Defense is fundamental to how this war ends.

With the appointment of a civilian economist, Andrey Belousov, as the new defense minister, Putin signaled that he wants the Ministry, with its vast budget, to acquire weapons more quickly and economically.

Russia's budget for 2024 shows that the country intends to spend 6% of its wealth on defense, the highest amount in the country's modern history, and will exceed social spending — a sign of the country's transition to a war economy.

Corruption

Mikhail Komin, a Russian political scientist and visiting member of the European Foreign Affairs Council, told CNN that “Shoigu’s group, among the Russian elites, is one of those who most seek rent. More, for example, than some members of Putin’s inner circle.”

On May 23, Lieutenant General Vadim Shamarin, head of the Main Communications Directorate of the Russian Armed Forces, was accused of “receiving a bribe on an especially large scale” of 36 million rubles (R$2.09 million). from a factory that supplies the ministry with communications equipment. In return, he allegedly awarded the company lucrative government contracts.

Shamarin has pleaded not guilty, according to Russian state media.

Russian state media also played a role in communicating the Kremlin's crackdown on the ministry.

After Shamarin's arrest in May, state-owned Ria Novosti reported that his wife had purchased a Mercedez-Benz GLE in 2018 for 20 million rubles (R$1.16 million), at a time when her income did not exceed around R$ 180 thousand.

A separate report found that his income that year was 872 thousand rubles (R$50,586.31 at current exchange rates).

The most high-profile of the five arrested officials was Timur Ivanov, deputy defense minister. He was placed under house arrest at the end of April, also on suspicion of accepting bribes.

Ivanov has become a focus of the Anti-Corruption Foundation, founded by Alexey Navalny, who was killed in a Russian prison in February.

He and his organization exposed the lavish lifestyle enjoyed by Ivanov's partner – visiting invitation-only jewelers, wearing haute couture clothes and owning a chalet in the fashionable ski resort of Courchevel, France.

They questioned how she managed to have this lifestyle when her husband's salary was R$918,100 per year.

Russian state media reported that Ivanov maintains his innocence.

For Stanovaya, the reasons for replacing figures like Ivanov and Shamarin are simple. “Part of Putin’s logic is that you can’t put someone in this position [como ministro da Defesa] where there are significant interests of the former.”

To help clean up the ministry, Putin appointed Oleg Savelyev, a former auditor at the Russian Accounts Chamber, as deputy defense minister. He will be “aware of the corruption that already exists in the defense sector,” Komin said.

Yevgeny Prigozhin's posthumous wish

Given the radical changes made by the president, rumors arose about the position of the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, Valery Gerasimov, the other target of Prigozhin's speeches.

Stanovaya points out that “there are rumors that he [Gerasimov] could be fired soon,” but the fact that the general has been spared so far gives Gerasimov “a window to start fighting for his own interests,” he added.

“Gerasimov is fighting his enemies, trying to secure his future,” Stanovaya said.

Komin agreed that Gerasimov can maintain his position for now, as Putin has said he does not intend to make any further changes.

Crucially, Komin suggested that Gerasimov's luck may be that he lacks a position, similar to Shoigu's, where he can be removed publicly without completely tarnishing his reputation: “it's no big deal to find the new guy. It’s more important to find the place for the previous guy.”

In Putin's Russia, the president remains focused on victory in Ukraine, but recent openings have shown that the supporting cast can change and that the president is ready to be relentless in his pursuit of victory.