Specialists RBC Crypto analyzed the market situation and assessed the prospects for the Bitcoin exchange rate movement over the next seven days.
“Buyers are generally in a fighting mood”
BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov
Bitcoin showed moderate growth last week despite a number of restraining factors. The BTC/USDt price traded in the range of $54,260 to $60,000, ending the week with a profit of about 5.12%. The key driver of growth was the improved sentiment in the crypto derivatives market, which created positive expectations about the possibility of returning to the $70,000 level in the near future.
The week started with an impressive 7% gain on July 8, when the Bitcoin price rose to $58,236. Although the price rolled back to $56,714 by the close, the growth continued on July 9, and the price reached $58,050. July 10 brought a small correction, with the close at $57,725. Buyers tried to resume the growth, but faced resistance at $58,400.
July 11 was marked by the release of US inflation data, which showed a more significant slowdown in price growth than expected. This caused short-term optimism in the markets, but by the end of the day, market sentiment had changed and Bitcoin closed down 0.67% to $57,339. The price reached $59,650 on the day, but was unable to hold those levels.
July 12 brought a moderate increase of 0.96% to $57,889. On this day, the US producer price index (PPI) unexpectedly rose to 3.0% per annum, exceeding forecasts. However, markets focused on the recent decline in consumer inflation, which increased expectations of a Fed rate cut. These factors put pressure on the US dollar, whose index fell by more than 0.40%.
During the week, Bitcoin tried to break the $60,000 mark, but was unable to pass and hold near the psychological level. The mood in the crypto market has worsened, as evidenced by the fall of the fear and greed index to the “extreme fear” zone for the first time in a year and a half.
The main event of the week was the sale of bitcoins by the German government, or more precisely by the authorities of Saxony. The Saxon police department had previously confiscated 50 thousand coins from the operators of the pirate site movie2k. By the end of the week, according to Arkham, the German government had completely sold out of its bitcoin reserves.
The macroeconomic environment continued to weigh heavily on fiat and Bitcoin. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to a seven-month low, highlighting the uncertainty in the economy. At the same time, expectations of a Fed rate cut could support risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
On July 13, the BTC/USDt pair rose to $58,854. In general, buyers are in a fighting mood. I expect their activity from July 15. If my expectations come true, then Bitcoin should rise in price all week from July 15 to 22. If you look at price levels according to technical analysis, it is quite possible to see the price recovery to $63,000. The maximum level for growth for the new week is $64,500.
In terms of technical analysis, it is worth noting that buyers were unable to pass the trend line from the top of $71,997. After July 15, it will be easier to pass. According to BitRiver estimates, if this level cannot be overcome, sellers will try to return the price to $56,245. The price model allows for a return. In general, despite some volatility, Bitcoin has shown resilience and the ability to recover from the recent significant drop.
“Not so simple”
Senior analyst of the Cryptorg trading platform Andrey Podolyan
If we analyze the technical picture on the Bitcoin price chart, it is worth noting that BTC has previously fallen out of the huge triangle on the daily time frame. And the price is still below its lower edge.
I will also note the formation of a bearish wedge under the triangle. All this indicates the possibility of an “aftershock”. In this case, this will mean a breakout of the previous minimum and the price going to the $50,000 region. In general, a previously broken triangle should, according to the classics of technical analysis, lead the price to $45,000 – the price movement is equal to the width of the triangle at the breakout point.
However, in “crypto” everything is not so simple, and it is always worth making a footnote to unexpected news. For example, many are expecting the launch of the first spot exchange-traded funds (ETF) based on Ethereum in the US in the coming week. This event can greatly shake up the market.
In case of a positive scenario, the price may overcome the bearish cloud on the 4-hour timeframe and the middle line of the FOMO channel, which form a “bundle of factors” and rush upward, up to $66 thousand. It is worth monitoring the breakout of the $59-60 thousand level in case of a positive development of events.
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Source: Cryptocurrency
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