untitled design

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD rises as weak US data fueled dovish bets on the Fed

  • The XAU/USD pair reached a high of $1,987, with gains of 1.35%.
  • US Industrial Production for October was lower than expected. Jobless claims rose to their highest level in three months.
  • US yields fall sharply.

The price of Gold XAU/USD experienced an impressive rally to the upside on Thursday, rising towards $1,985 and posting a daily gain of 1.35%. The metal’s momentum was boosted by the decline in US Treasuries, which fell following the report of weak US data suggesting markets are betting on lower odds of further tightening by the the Federal Reserve (Fed).

In terms of data, initial jobless claims for the week ending November 10 in the US saw a notable increase to 231,000, exceeding the 220,000 expected. Furthermore, Industrial Production did not meet expectations for October, as it showed a decrease of 0.3% and a 0.6% month-on-month drop expected by the markets. These unfavorable US economic figures fueled the decline in US Treasuries, often seen as the cost of maintaining non-yielding earnings, allowing prices to rebound. The 2-year Treasury yield fell to 4.83%, and the 5-year and 10-year yields fell to 4.43% and 4.45%, respectively.

Meanwhile, CME’s FedWatch tool suggests that markets have already priced in a pause in December and are now pricing in rate cuts in April-May 2024. In this sense, as the dollar weakens and investors bet Due to a less aggressive Fed, the yellow metal could continue to rise.

XAU/USD levels to watch

On the daily chart, XAU/USD is showing a bullish bias after the price wiped out most of its November losses. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates positive momentum with an upward slope above its midline, while the Moving Average Convergence Histogram (MACD) shows ascending green bars. Zooming in, the pair is trading above the 20,100 and 200-day SMAs, suggesting that the bulls are also in control in a broader context.

Supports: $1,975 (20-day SMA), $1,930 (100- and 200-day SMA), $1,915.
Resistances: $2,000, $2,030, $2,050.

XAU/USD daily chart


Latest price today 1987.94
Daily change today 28.42
Today’s daily change 1.45
Today daily opening 1959.52
daily SMA20 1973.5
daily SMA50 1924.93
SMA100 daily 1928.47
SMA200 Journal 1936.02
Previous daily high 1975.47
Previous daily low 1955.51
Previous weekly high 1993.18
Previous weekly low 1933.04
Previous Monthly High 2009.49
Previous monthly low 1810.51
Daily Fibonacci 38.2 1963.13
Fibonacci 61.8% daily 1967.85
Daily Pivot Point S1 1951.53
Daily Pivot Point S2 1943.54
Daily Pivot Point S3 1931.57
Daily Pivot Point R1 1971.49
Daily Pivot Point R2 1983.46
Daily Pivot Point R3 1991.45

Source: Fx Street

You may also like

Get the latest

Stay Informed: Get the Latest Updates and Insights


Most popular