ESPM International Relations professor Leonardo Trevisan, in an interview with CNN Brazil analyzed the electoral scenario in the United States, highlighting that “less than 10% of the electorate will decide” the final result of the presidential dispute between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
Trevisan emphasized that, despite the media attention being focused on President Joe Biden’s gaffes, it is crucial to look at the bigger picture of the electoral race. According to the expert, “about 90% of American voters who intend to vote have already made up their minds, and 42 of the 50 states already have a clear tendency, whether Republican or Democratic.”
The importance of “swing states”
The professor stressed that the election will be decided in seven “swing states,” with three of them being crucial: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, known as the “blue wall.” Trevisan mentioned that Biden’s campaign team is focusing efforts, including financial ones, on regaining ground in Wisconsin, where Trump has a 6% lead.
Furthermore, the expert highlighted the importance of the black electorate, especially in Georgia, which could be decisive for the final result. “If the black voter in Georgia leaves home to go vote, he changes this election in Georgia, he changes the delegates,” said Trevisan.
Biden vs. Trump: Technical tie
Despite concerns about Biden’s age and cognitive aptitude, Trevisan noted that three consecutive polls show the current president technically tied with Donald Trump. The professor also pointed to Biden’s performance in recent debates, where he demonstrated in-depth knowledge of foreign policy during an hour-long discussion, which Trevisan said serves as an informal “cognitive test.”
Finally, the expert predicts that the media’s focus should shift in the coming days, possibly moving away from Biden’s gaffes and toward other aspects of the election campaign, including the candidates’ strategies for winning over different segments of the American electorate.
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Source: CNN Brasil
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