The market’s attention is focused on the long-awaited decision of the Fomc, the American Monetary Policy Committee, which should be released at 4 pm.
The definition of the withdrawal of stimuli and interest should set the tone for the market in 2022. The expectation is that the Fomc will be tougher, as the latest employment data came in strong, and inflation remains under pressure.
To cite some data, the United States had 11 million job openings in October, a vacancy and a half for every unemployed person.
This Tuesday (14), producer price data came out, which rose 9.6% year-on-year, the biggest advance in the historical series. The data suggest that the economy no longer needs stimulus and that stimulus is putting pressure on prices.
In another sign that the world is more inclined to enter a phase of higher interest rates, in Chile, the Central Bank has already started and raised the interest rate from 2.75% to 4%.
Moving to Asia, stocks mostly fell, with worse-than-expected data from China.
In Europe, stock markets are trying to recover after two days of decline, but with London falling, after inflation data above expectations.
Brazil
In Brazil, in addition to American interest rates, investors should pass on the preview of October’s GDP and the results of the PEC dos Precatórios.
The GDP preview, the Central Bank’s IBC-BR, which showed that the economy dropped 0.4% in October, a little below market expectations, which predicted a 0.2% drop, according to Refinitiv. In 12 months, the economy registers a high of 4.9%.
The data released by the Central Bank reinforces that the economy opens the fourth quarter with weak activity, together with negative data from industry, trade and services in the month. The data also raises the bets of stagnation or fall in GDP in the last quarter of 2021.
In politics, the Chamber of Deputies approved, in the first round, the second part of the PEC dos Precatórios, which opens up a fiscal space of R$ 106.1 billion to increase spending in 2022.
With that, the government will be able to pay the Auxílio Brasil in the amount of R$ 400 and still demands of parliamentarians.
The text goes to vote in the second round, in a session called for at 10 am this Wednesday (15th).
Among the highlights, the deputies approved the limit for the payment of court orders until 2026, and not until 2036, and the linking of the open space in the ceiling for Auxílio Brasil and social security expenses. The expectation is that the PEC is approved, without the need for a new vote in the senate.
Still on the political scene, president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and the economy minister, Paulo Guedes, are negotiating a salary increase of R$ 11.1 billion over the next 3 years, for the category of federal police officers.
The Ibovespa index operates this morning up 0.33% to 108,500 points, with the dollar down 0.36% to R$ 5.67. The S&P Futuro rose 0.09%, to 4,638 points.
Agenda of the Day
In addition to the release of IBC-BR data, the fourth phase of Open Banking begins today. The analysis by the Federal Court of Accounts (TCU) of the privatization of Eletrobras is also on the agenda, and may take place at 10 am.
Abroad, in addition to the Fomc in the United States, activity indices and PMIs in Australia and Japan will be released at 9 pm.
Reference: CNN Brasil
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