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USD/TRY finds support at the 16.50 area

  • USD/TRY is trading with modest losses near 16.60.
  • Türkiye’s economic confidence index fell to 93.60 in June.
  • Investors continue to monitor the recent government move.

The new gains of the Turkish currency motivate the USD/TRY around the 16.60 area, with a modest decline on the day.

USD/TRY looks supported near 16.00

USD/TRY trims part of Tuesday’s advance and appears to be back on the downside despite the better environment surrounding the USD on Wednesday.

Indeed, the lira appears to be offered as investors continue to closely monitor the effects of Friday’s new government move to boost the national currency. It should be remembered that the Turkish banking regulator announced on Friday a ban on lending in lira to companies holding more than 15 million lira if that amount exceeds 10% of the company’s total assets or annual sales revenue.

Following the publication of this new interventionist measure, USD/TRY plunged to the 16.00 area on Monday from Friday’s highs near 17.40, that is, almost 8%.

On the calendar, the Türkiye Economic Confidence Index fell to 93.60 in June (from 96.70).

What to look for around the TRY

USD/TRY continues to digest the recent sharp decline following further intervention in the currency markets by Ankara.

So far, the price action of the Turkish currency is expected to revolve around the behavior of energy prices, the general trends in risk appetite, the path of the Fed rates and the events of the war. in Ukraine, although the effects of this new measure aimed at supporting the de-dollarization of the economy will also have its voice in the price action around the pair.

Additional risks facing the TRY also come from within, as inflation shows no signs of abating, real interest rates remain entrenched in the negative, and political pressure for the CBRT to lean toward interest rates Low interest is still ubiquitous.

key levels

For now, the pair is down 0.01% at 16.6373 and a break of 16.0365 (monthly low Jun 27) would target 15.6684 (low May 23) and eventually 15.2057 (100-day SMA). On the other hand, the next upside barrier comes at 17.3759 (23 Jun 2022 high), followed by 18.2582 (20 Dec all-time high) and then 19.00 (round level).

Source: Fx Street

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