Credit Suisse economists maintain their view that we have already seen a major top in USDJPY at the 147.62/153.01 target. Therefore, the pair could take a substantial drop to 140.35/30.
A sustained close above 153.01 will curb thoughts of a top
“The USDJPY extends its consolidation after reaching and rejecting the upper end of our long-term target at 147.62/153.01 – the 32.8% retracement of the drop since 1982 and the 1998 high. We maintain our base case of looking for a potentially important top here. Therefore, we look for a fall until 145.12and then the 55-day mean in 144.60/50“.
“A close below 144.60/50 may further reinforce thoughts of a top and drop to 140.35/30 then 23.6% retracement of 2021/2022 uptrend and late September low.”
“However, a clear and sustained close above 153.01 would reduce immediate ideas of a top with resistance below at the 1990 high in 160.33 “.
Source: Fx Street
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