Presidential election: nervousness wins the Trump camp

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The US president ended discussions on the stimulus plan, before partially retracting. The proliferation of contaminations at the White House complicates the organization of the last weeks of the campaign. Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump is growing, according to several polls.

“Hurry, I’m waiting to sign!” “ Among a flurry of tweets Wednesday morning, Donald Trump urged the Democratic leader in Congress, Nancy Pelosi, to agree to send checks of $ 1,200 to the Americans. The day before, to everyone’s amazement, the president had announced the end of discussions around a stimulus plan that he himself had encouraged in recent weeks, saying he was ready to put up to $ 1.5 trillion on the table.

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Quickly regretted mood swings, political strategy, fatigue linked to their contamination with Covid-19? Recovering in the White House since his return from the hospital Monday evening, Donald Trump continued frantic communication on Wednesday morning, at the rate of ten tweets and retweets per hour. In an unprecedented atmosphere: the contamination of several advisers and staff members sent home a large part of the staff still present.

Reasons to get angry

Less than four weeks before the presidential election on November 3, Donald Trump has multiplied in recent days the reasons to anger part of the electorate that Republicans want to rally, from the revelation of his $ 750 tax sheet to the rambling debate against Joe Biden through his contamination.

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By asserting that he had  “learned a lot” from Covid-19 and that he had to  “live with” , as  “the flu season (which) is coming” , the president in particular risks having hit the families of the 210,000 victims of the virus, and worried the most vulnerable populations. To correct the effect, his chief of staff, Mark Meadows, assured that the president was working to make available to all Americans the treatments he himself had received.

Dropout of over 65s

Opinion polls are starting to send danger signals to the Republican campaign. In a “Wall Street Journal” / NBC News poll conducted after the heated debate between the two candidates but before the announcement of Donald Trump’s contamination, 53% of voters showed their support for Joe Biden and 39% for Donald Trump (with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 points). A gap up six points over the previous month, which could however be partly linked to the “shock” felt after the strong exchanges.

Another poll conducted by CNN / SSRS and published on Tuesday, however, also gives Joe Biden a lead of 16 points over Donald Trump, with 57% of voting intentions against 41%. Above all, they both show a shift of over 65s, whose vote will be important in the handful of key states that will determine the election (Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan…). The gap in favor of Joe Biden is thus 27 points (62% against 35%) in the poll “WSJ” / NBC, and 21 points (60% against 39%) in the CNN / SSRS.

Opinion polls had undervalued Donald Trump’s weight to the end in 2016, but the scale of postal voting this year spreads the vote over several weeks: more voters, having already received their ballot , will vote in October.

“Forget the polls”

The Democratic camp tempers the results of these polls, in particular so as not to demobilize the electorate. “Forget the polls. The stake is too important to be complacent , and tweeted Joe Biden Tuesday. The Democratic candidate was in Gettysburg, at the scene of a historic Civil War battle, with a message of unity in one of the states – Pennsylvania – deemed most crucial in the election.

Vice President Mike Pence was to try to correct the trend this Wednesday night during his televised debate with Kamala Harris, Joe Biden’s running mate . Organized in Utah, however, it deprived the vice-president of ensuring a presence in the White House earlier this week. The announcement of new contaminations among the president’s close team, with that of his advisor Stephen Miller, also accentuates the difficulties of organizing the campaign for the past few weeks. The participation of the two candidates in the debate scheduled for October 15 is still pending.

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