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“The voters are not ready to part with him.” What lies ahead for Trump

Today in the United States, the impeachment process over Donald Trump, who has not been president for three weeks, will continue. De facto, he is being tried retroactively, and the Senate has recognized this procedure as constitutional. The goal of Trump’s opponents is not only to condemn him, but to ban him from running in the future. However, the upcoming Senate election campaign will play in favor of the 45th US President and now he is likely to get away with it, while losing the support of some Republicans. What does the trial of the ex-president look like, will it be possible to bring him to justice and what will happen to Trump next

WHAT THE ACCOUNT LIKE AND THE PROCESS

The 45th US president was charged with “inciting insurrection.” On January 6, he organized a rally of his supporters in front of the Capitol, personally taking part in it. Trump, in particular, told them that they should “fight like hell.” As a result, people went to storm the Capitol, killing five people.

Because of this, the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives of the US Congress has already impeached him. Trump became the first American president to be subjected to this process twice. However, for the procedure to be complete and have legal consequences, Trump must now be found guilty by the Senate.

On January 20, when Biden officially became president, Trump went to his Florida estate. There he opened the “office of the former president”, which deals with the organizational issues of the ex-head of the White House (correspondence, appointments, and so on), and also played golf. Most of the time, Politico reports, he spent surrounded by assistants. Trump then began preparations for the impeachment process.

For example, he was forced to look for new lawyers, because a week before the impeachment, Trump had a fight with his defenders and they refused to represent his interests: the ex-president insisted that they build defense, starting from a fake about election fraud, and not from the unconstitutionality of the process. But the lawyers, apparently, did not like this, given that they had not previously been able to prove the falsifications in any court.

His current lawyers base their defense on the assertion that the actions of the ex-president were not incitement: his words cannot be interpreted as a call to violence – it was an exercise of the right to freedom of speech, since he spoke in a “figurative sense.”

Also, the line of defense was built on the alleged unconstitutionality of the process, because Trump is no longer president. But the Congressional Research Service believes that this procedure could apply to a person who does not hold a public office. This requires that the impeachment process be started while he was still in office. This was acknowledged by 56 senators who voted for the constitutionality of the process on February 9.

Now the prosecution and defense sides will have 16 hours to speak. This can be done for no more than eight hours a day. Then the senators who are actually serving as jurors in this case will have four hours to ask questions; determine the procedure for hearing witnesses (the ex-president refused to voluntarily testify); be able to say the final word; and only then will the Senate vote on whether to impeach Trump.

Although the process promises to be extremely fast in comparison, for example, with the first impeachment, it will still last several days or a week. Senators will be distracted from impeachment by other issues: the formation of the government and the approval of Biden’s policies. The decisive vote on Trump is likely to take place early next week.

WILL IT BE ABLE TO DECLARE TRUMPA IMPICHMENT AND WHY IT IS

Democrats have two goals of impeachment against Trump, who is no longer president: symbolic and practical. Symbolic lies in the need to punish him for January 6; practical – after the announcement of impeachment, a separate vote can prohibit him from running and holding any public office in the future (this is the main threat to Trump).

Impeachment will not be announced due to insufficient number of Republican votes, says Vladimir Dubovik, director of the Center for International Studies

Two-thirds of senators (67 out of 100) are required to declare impeachment. The Democrats have a simple majority in the Senate – 50 seats plus the vote of US Vice President Kamala Harris. That is, they need to get another 16 Republican votes. The Democrats thought they would be able to convince some Republicans, but adjustments to their plans are being made by the upcoming election campaign for the Senate in 2022, where 34 seats will be at stake.

Impeachment won’t be announced due to insufficient Republican votes, says LIGA.net Director of the Center for International Studies Vladimir Dubovik: “Many Republican senators, even those who are critical of Trump, are not ready to publicly challenge him, because it means challenging the electorate … The number of votes” for “impeachment will be similar to the number of votes” for “constitutionality process “.

“Even those Republicans who were critical of Trump’s role in the January 6 events are today opposed to impeachment. There is also increasing pressure on Republicans who voted to impeach,” says LIGA.net director of the New Europe Center Alena Getmanchuk, explaining that this is due to Trump’s ratings among Republican voters.

There is a chance, however, that impeachment will not end for Trump. His opponents have another tool in their hands: the 14th Amendment to the US Constitution, or rather its third section, which prohibits a person from holding any public office who swore an oath to abide by the US Constitution, and then took part in an uprising against it, or support for the rebels.

The Republican Party is not ready to part with Trump, since their voter is not ready to part with him, – says Alena Getmanchuk, director of the New Europe Center

Democratic Senator Tim Cain believes that the January 6 events were a rebellion against the US Constitution because they tried to prevent Congress from fulfilling its constitutional duty, and Trump helped the rebels, which could become the basis for the application of the 14th Amendment. According to the Democrat, Republicans will be more inclined to vote not for impeachment, but for the 14th amendment. However, its application is an extremely difficult process, since it is not known how to do it correctly from a procedural point of view.

“This is absolutely unrealistic, from the category of science fiction,” Dubovik believes: “There will be a trial, it will last a couple of days, it will not be impeached and that’s it. There is no need to build illusions and scenarios aimed at a different outcome. He will retain the theoretical right to be nominated for 2024. th “.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH TRUMP’S CAREER NEXT

Since the impeachment of Trump, most likely, will not be announced, and the use of the 14th amendment remains in question, which even American constitutionalists cannot unequivocally answer, the 45th US president will come out of this situation dry, but extremely weakened. “He is weakened more than ever over the past five years,” Dubovik said, adding that many Republican politicians turned against him.

However, the support of the electorate significantly strengthens Trump’s position. “The Republican Party is not ready to say goodbye to Trump because their voters are not ready to say goodbye to him,” Getmanchuk said, explaining that the Republicans are taking into account the upcoming elections.

“The calculations of the Republicans show that the attachment to Trump and his messages will guarantee them a result better than in case of a departure from his policies. After another story with impeachment, Trump will focus on the elections to Congress, in particular, helping Republican candidates professing his views and principles.” , – the expert suggests.

Democrats and Republicans say that the split in society needs to be overcome, but no one is ready for this to the detriment of their interests, says Dubovik

Both sides will try to capitalize on this situation, Dubovik says. Trump will repeat the fake statement about the stolen elections and Republican support, and “for Democrats now, the main component of the process is the use of the thesis about the” irresponsible Republican party “in the next campaign for 2022.”

Such rhetoric will exacerbate the already considerable division in American society. “Nobody canceled politicization. Democrats and Republicans say that the split must be overcome, but no one is ready for this to the detriment of their interests,” Dubovik explains.

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