Bitcoin updated its all-time high of $69,000 in November. Since then, the BTC rate has been declining and eventually reached a low of $17,592 in June 2022.
For the first time in its history, the price closed monthly trades below the 50-month MA (orange). Previously, this line played a key role in triggering bounces, acting as a bottom after sharp drops (green icons).
However, this did not happen in June. Bitcoin closed monthly trading at $19,924, while the MA is at $21,600. Now, a recovery above this mark is vital for the continuation of the bullish trend.
On the 6-hour chart, BTC has made its first rising low since June 18. It happened near the Fibo level 0.618 of the correction at $19,250.
Also, although the RSI made a bearish breakout of the bullish divergence trendline, it subsequently managed to recover above it. Now we can view this drawdown as just a temporary aberration.
Meanwhile, the 2-hour chart paints the exact opposite and much less optimistic picture. Here the price, on the contrary, only temporarily deviated above the $20,000 horizontal resistance area and the descending resistance line, which has been present on the chart since June 26.
Until BTC recovers above these levels, the trend cannot be considered bullish.
Wave analysis of BTC
Wave analysis results suggest several possible long-term scenarios. As for the short-term analysis, it looks more definite and comes down to two main options.
According to the bullish scenario, the market has completed the ABC correction structure. In this case, growth is expected to continue.
Waves A:C correlate as 1:1.61, which is typical for such structures.
In the bearish scenario, all BTC depreciation since the beginning of June has been part of wave 4 (white) of a five-wave bearish structure. In this case, bitcoin will face a drawdown in the direction of $16,000, and only after that it will finally turn around.
We will be able to understand which of these two options is correct, depending on whether the price manages to recover from the short-term resistance levels we have identified above.
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